Narrow trading range in BTC / USD after closing above $ 45K support and retesting breakout level in ETH / USD in another review from Cred and DonAlt, mailing list authors Technical Roundup... Also in the program: a strong upward momentum in Tezos and a small commentary on the situation in the S&P 500 index.
BTC over $ 45k support
Bitcoin is trading between $ 45K and $ 46.4K against the dollar.
The narrowness of this range reflects the apparent volatility in the market after a significant drop last week.
Support at $ 45K on the weekly chart at the close of the candle was held. This is a positive signal that increases the chances of a breakout of this short-term range upwards rather than downwards.
If this rally continues, what will beto signal a close above $ 46.4 thousand, then a retest of $ 49-49.7 thousand is likely. This is an area of significant resistance, which is clearly indicated by the strength of the price rollback after a false breakout of this level.
In addition to the short-term range, the most important are the $ 40K and $ 50K areas.
Below $ 40 thousand, the thesis about a smaller minimum in the macrostructure becomes relevant. Above $ 50K, the trend is likely to continue to new record highs.
Everything else is more noise than signal.
ETH: retest $ 3000
In ETH / USD, the situation also does not look calm and stable, as in the crypto market as a whole.
Support is formed by the previous trading range (~ $ 3000 +), resistance is immediately higher, at the level of $ 3430–3500.
If the upper limit of the range isovercome, then there is a significant probability of movement to new record highs. If the market falls below, then $ 2,750-2,890 appears to be an attractive untested support level.
The current range ($ 3200-3400) is somewhat narrow for trading on higher timeframes, but in general, the support for $ 3000 is still valid, as well as in BTC / USD.
Strong bullish momentum in Tezos
Tezos demonstrates strength against the background of the general weakness of the crypto market.
This is generally a good indicator.availability of demand for the asset. In other words, if an asset shows strength against the background of the weakness of the market as a whole, then it is likely that it will look even stronger against the generally favorable background. There is also news of Tezos' upcoming NFT collaboration with OpenSea, which could be a good tailwind for this market.
But, as always, a significant drop in bitcoincan ruin a brewing party in the bud. So a bet on any altcoins assumes a certain amount of strength and stability in the main cryptoassets.
Finally, how the situation looks from the point of view of TA. In essence, it develops as a breakout into the zone of defining new price levels. Double tops are not very common in practice.
However, any weakness in BTC / USD orpost-breakout indecision potentially refutes this thesis. The best possible scenario here is a strong continuation of momentum with no pullback or meaningful consolidation.
Pullback in the S&P 500
There is a definite correlation between the bitcoin rate against the dollar and the S&P 500 index.
More specifically, BTC / USD periodically correlates positively with the S&P 500, especially downward. That is, when the S&P 500 falls on the crypto market, a sale also occurs.
The crypto industry, of course, is not immune to major dips in traditional markets. You won't have to look for examples of this for a long time.
Currently, the S&P 500 index has corrected to the 50-day moving average (MA).
At this level, the S&P 500 tends to form a bottom and, more importantly, the upward market structure (higher lows / higher highs) remains in place from the March 2020 pandemic lows.
In general, the situation in the S&P 500 looks like a standard bullish retest of the 50d MA.
If “this time everything is different” TM and 50d supportMA in the S&P 500 will not work out, then any signs of short-term and medium-term optimism in the crypto market, apparently, will be destroyed along with this support.
This is something worth adding to your watchlist for the next week or so.
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