November 29, 2022

Bitcoin will resume growth after the US Federal Reserve cuts its base rate

Bitcoin will resume growth after the US Federal Reserve cuts its base rate

Bitcoin Price (BTC) has fallen slightly from recent highs, but some analysts believe that losses may be restored after the expected reduction in US interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, writes Omkar Godball of Coindesk.

Nigel Green, the founder and CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, believes that cryptocurrency can demonstrate growth in response to the Fed rate cut.

Anthony Pompliano, founder and partner of MorganCreek Digital Assets, said in August that the price of bitcoin could rise dramatically if a quantitative easing program follows a cut in the Fed rate.

Max Kaiser, a former trader and journalist for The Wall Street Journal, also believes that further easing of the Fed's monetary policy will lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin to $ 100,000.

Lower rates lead to inflation, which meansdecrease in the purchasing power of fiat currencies. Therefore, in the cryptocurrency market, there is a generally accepted opinion that easing the Fed's monetary policy will become a good sign for bitcoin, which is a deflationary asset and expects a reduction in remuneration for mining (halving) in less than a year.

Bitcoin, however, rarely reacted to the the past. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in December 2015. This was the first increase since 2006. Then there was another rate increase in December 2016 and four in 2017. However, at the end of October 2015, bitcoin grew above $ 300, and by December 2017 reached a historic high of $ 20,000.

Thus, the likelihood that the price of Bitcoin will respond positively to tomorrow's rate cut is quite controversial.

Traditional markets have already estimated rate cuts on25 basis points, and foreign exchange markets are likely to drop the US dollar only if the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points or reports a weakening in the near future. In this case, anti-dollar sentiment can affect the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin will resume growth after the US Federal Reserve cuts its base rate

At the moment, the price of bitcoin is atsupporting the upward trend line at $ 10,120. A break below will further strengthen the bearish market position, so a deeper fall to $ 9,855 is possible.

On the other hand, the bearish high is at $ 10,956 (20August) remains the level that bulls need to pass. This level will become possible in the event of a price rebound from upward support above $ 10,458 (Friday maximum).

The probability of a local break down is high, sohow the breakthrough of the downward wedge last week on the 4-hour chart (top right) could not live up to the bulls' hopes. In fact, the breakthrough ended with another bearish high of $ 10,458.