December 2, 2023

Bitcoin will resume growth after the US Federal Reserve cuts its base rate

Bitcoin will resume growth after the US Federal Reserve cuts its base rate

The price of bitcoin (BTC) is down slightly from recent highs, but some analysts believe that losses couldto be restored following an expected 25 basis point cut in US interest rates on Wednesday, writes Omkar Godbole of Coindesk.

Nigel Green, founder and CEO of consultancy deVere Group, believes the cryptocurrency could see growth in response to the Fed's rate cut.

Anthony Pompliano, founder and partner at MorganCreek Digital Assets, in August, said that the price of Bitcoin could rise strongly if the Fed's rate cut is followed by a quantitative easing program.

Max Kaiser, a former trader and journalist for The Wall Street Journal, also believes that further easing of the Fed's monetary policy will lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin to $ 100,000.

Lower rates lead to inflation, which meansdecrease in the purchasing power of fiat currencies. Therefore, in the cryptocurrency market, there is a generally accepted opinion that easing the Fed's monetary policy will become a good sign for bitcoin, which is a deflationary asset and expects a reduction in remuneration for mining (halving) in less than a year.

Bitcoin, however, rarely reacted to the the past. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in December 2015. This was the first increase since 2006. Then there was another rate increase in December 2016 and four in 2017. However, at the end of October 2015, bitcoin grew above $ 300, and by December 2017 reached a historic high of $ 20,000.

Thus, the likelihood that the price of Bitcoin will respond positively to tomorrow's rate cut is quite controversial.

Traditional markets have already appreciated the rate reduction by25 basis points, and currency markets are likely to dump the US dollar only if the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points or announces easing in the near future. In this case, anti-dollar sentiment may affect the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin will resume growth after the US Federal Reserve cuts its base rate


At the moment, the price of bitcoin is atsupporting the upward trend line at $ 10,120. A break below will further strengthen the bearish market position, so a deeper fall to $ 9,855 is possible.

On the other hand, the bearish high is at $ 10,956 (20August) remains the level that bulls need to pass. This level will become possible in the event of a price rebound from upward support above $ 10,458 (Friday maximum).

The probability of a local break down is high, sohow the breakthrough of the downward wedge last week on the 4-hour chart (top right) could not live up to the bulls' hopes. In fact, the breakthrough ended with another bearish high of $ 10,458.