January 29, 2023

With resistance, but with what prospects! — Technical review dated October 5, 2022

This week, regular Technical Roundup contributors are discussing a rally in risk assets after several unstable closes on high timeframes,BTC/USD price action at $20K and ETH/USD also trading at the previous cycle peak at $1400. DonAlt(a) congratulations on another "investment": ChainLink/dollar in the shitcoin of the week column. In conclusion, let's discuss the resistance retest on the monthly timeframe in the S&P500.

https://coinmarketcap.com/coins/views/all/

Bitcoin is back to $20,000.

We live in a sad world where ~$20k is the best intraweek resistance level on the chart.

Our position remains more or less unchanged.Bitcoin/dollar did not fall lower when the risk asset indices fell. Now, amid a rebound in risky indices, bitcoin needs to take a meaningful part in this celebration.

The minimum task is to turn the $20,000 area from resistance into support. In terms of weekly structure, a close above the weekly cluster at $21k would be highly desirable.

As we will discuss further in the section on the S&P500, the riskthis week (and this month as well) is that the risk indices will run into resistance after the “bearish” close of the previous month and resume the downtrend, probably dragging the bitcoin/dollar along with it.

In any case, it doesn't take much tosee how $20-21 thousand (peak of the previous cycle, weekly resistance cluster) turns into support on the weekly timeframe. No downside breakdown is good, that's half the equation. The bullish continuation is the missing second half, and that is what will be addressed in the next week or two.

Ethereum: ping pong between $1200 and $1400

Ethereum/USD is also trading below the highprevious cycle ($1400). This became a clear inflection point for the market, which is quite noticeable on the daily timeframe. Simply put, if this level turns from resistance to support, then it is likely that the growth will continue.

The setup looks very orthodox:a single-digit level, overcome and gain a foothold in the market above it, and we can probably expect continued growth. As for the current support, there is a coincidence of many levels and indicators in the $1200 area. This is a decent cluster on the weekly timeframe and a clear range high on the daily timeframe.

As we noted last week, while the markettrading above $1200, this leaves room for optimism. Optimism will turn into opportunity if it closes higher at $1400 on the higher timeframe. $1550-1600 in this case would be the target level for a bullish continuation (very ambitious, huh): in the current environment, trading from level to level seems to be a reasonable strategy.

A bolder bullish scenario is the momentum fromrestored and turned in support of the level of $1400 to the weekly resistance of $1800-1900. But for now, can we afford the small luxury of not using the previous cycle highs as resistance?

In any case, the current short-term range is $1200-1400, and some short-term and medium-term rescue is possible only if it breaks its high ($1400).

DonAlt got into ChainLink

Donalt suddenly fell in love with ChainLink. There is no clear narrative here. The ChainLink conference has already passed and, in general, it's kind of like that's all.

Maybe, given the relative dominance of this coin in the last long bear market, we will get something like an “encore”? It would be nice and the timing looks right.

The graph is close to not looking like garbage. This is such a veiled way of saying that it is actually at resistance, but there is plenty of room to rise above.

More specifically, the pair against the dollar is testing the maximumrange at $8.10. Restore the market to this level and the way up is open. The next resistance is closer to $12-13, so there is enough room for the momentum to continue. The main thing is that this impulse manifests itself.

The pair against BTC looks positive in this regard, having recently recovered the low of the range at 3420 Satoshi.

All in all, this week altcoins are a bet withhigh risk and high profit. The crypto market is moving from the lows, stocks are rising (but approaching resistance), so by betting on altcoins, you are either very right and early, or you are buying the top.

Many alts are looking similar right now, right at resistance, and it might just be worth waiting for confirmation of continued momentum in major cryptocurrencies.

S&P500 ready to ruin the holiday?

If all the current positive undertakings of the marketsgo to waste, it will be the fault of the S&P500. The index closed September below the monthly support at $3710-3760. Now he has recovered to this level and is already testing it from below. This is technically a bearish retest until proven otherwise.

Although our instinct tells us about the possibilitymore growth - especially considering the doomposters getting extremely excited by any vague headline about a bank liquidity crisis - we have to respect the TA factors.

Technically, this is a break of support and a test of this.level as resistance. Whether this breakout turns into a trap or a rejection will be clear at the end of the month (if you are conservative and don't like to rush things) or in the next 1-2 weeks (if the flows clear up and/or you tend to "frontrun" the close of the month).

So far in this downtrend unsuccessfulThere were no breakouts, and the market went through the technical levels fairly straight forward. If this changes, then the medium-term argument in favor of risky assets can be considered supported. In the meantime, in the absence of clear signs of a failed break down and recovery, it would be wise to exercise some caution when retesting technical resistance.

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