June 17, 2024

Economic digest 12/22/2019

The dollar/ruble pair fell last week and closed at 62.2525. In the medium term the pair will most likelyfinished wave C of wave 2 of the final diagonaltriangle with 86, which is flat (marking here), and is already in wave 3. Options for long-term markings are here. The net long speculative position in ruble futures did not change and amounted to 27,200.  The RTS Index rose and closed at 1523.77 (long-term marking here, medium-term marking here). The Russian government bond index (RGBI-tr) also rose, set a new all-time high (569.42) and closed at 568.4. For more details, see the “Results of the Week” program.

World markets

Oilimplemented the “inverted head andshoulders,” and went into correction. When this correction ends (has ended) will depend on where exactly the KDT ended, which was the last wave in the movement from 42.05 (marking here), there are still options (see here). At the moment, flat (more details here) is no longer the most likely option; it is not yet possible to single out one. The net volume of long speculative positions last week increased by 40,900, from 495,500 to 536,400. The number of operating towers in the US increased from 667 to 685. The week closed WTI - 60.44, Brent - 66.10. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market was 77%.

Euro / dollar(EUR/USD) completed wave C of a flat correction withMarch 2015 (the marking can be viewed here, the dollar index – here), respectively, wave X in the long-term marking, since the level of 1.21545 was broken (previously this signal was given by the dollar index, breaking the corresponding level), and is moving towards parity. Now the pair is in the fifth wave of this movement, which is KDT. Closing the week - 1.1075. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 44%.

Futures on the S&P indexWhat is the latest wave of growth, sayIt’s still difficult, most likely this is part of a corrective pattern (wave B of a triangle or flat), and it is apparently not finished yet, so I expect the upward movement to continue in the near future. Closing the week - 3225.75. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 82%.

Goldis in wave B in a circle in the long-termmarkup (perhaps already finished it). The metal broke through 1366.08, therefore its wave B (or X) was a triangle, and it is already moving in wave C, and may have completed it (medium-term markings here). Closing the week - 1477.86. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 40%.

Bitcoinbroke through the October low, so there is every reason to believe that the impulse from last year’s low was completed on June 26 and now a correction to it is underway (or completed) (wave 2).

RUH666 (ancestor of Rüchism)