July 24, 2024

Economic digest 10.11.2019

The dollar/ruble pair grew last week and closed at 63.80. In the medium term the pair will most likelyfinished wave C of wave 2 of the final diagonaltriangle with 86, which is flat (marking here), and is already in wave 3. Options for long-term markings are here. The net long speculative position in ruble futures fell by 100, from 25,800 to 25,700.  The RTS Index rose, updated its high for the year and closed at 1468.17 (long-term markings here, medium-term markings here). The Russian Government Bond Index (RGBI-tr) set a new all-time high (564.71) and closed at 563.91.

World markets

Oilimplemented the “inverted head andshoulders,” and went into correction. When this correction ends (has ended) will depend on where exactly the KDT ended, which was the last wave in the movement from 42.05 (marking here), there are still options (see here). At the moment, flat (more details here) is no longer the most likely option; it is not yet possible to single out one. The net volume of long speculative positions last week increased by 22,800, from 383,300 to 406,100. The number of operating towers in the US fell from 691 to 684. The week closed WTI - 57.24, Brent - 62.51. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market was 54%.

Euro / dollar (EUR/USD) completed wave C of a flat correction withMarch 2015 (the marking can be viewed here, the dollar index – here), respectively, wave X in the long-term marking, since the level of 1.21545 was broken (previously this signal was given by the dollar index, breaking the corresponding level), and is moving towards parity. Now the pair is in the fifth wave of this movement, which is KDT. Weekly close: 1.1019. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 31%.

Futures on the S&P index  What is the latest wave of growth, sayIt’s still difficult, most likely this is part of a corrective pattern (triangle or flat), and it’s apparently not finished yet, so I expect the upward movement to continue in the near future. Closing the week - 3090.5. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 81%.

Goldis in wave B in a circle in the long-termmarkup (perhaps already finished it). The metal broke through 1366.08, therefore its wave B (or X) was a triangle, and it is already moving in wave C (medium-term markings here). Closing the week - 1458.97. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 33%.

Bitcoin , most likely completed wave 4 of the momentum from the December lows, so it is likely that the most popular cryptocurrency has begun its rally in the fifth wave that will complete it.

RUH666 (ancestor of Rüchism)