April 26, 2024

Economic Digest 02/09/2020

The dollar/ruble pair rose last week and closed at 64.125. In the medium term the pair will most likelyfinished wave C of wave 2 of the final diagonaltriangle with 86, which is flat (marking here), and is already in wave 3. Options for long-term markings are here. The net long speculative position in ruble futures fell by 2,700 from 29,100 to 26,400.  The RTS Index changed little and closed at 1518.23 (long-term marking here, medium-term marking here). The Russian government bond index (RGBI-tr) rose, set a new all-time high (581.65) and closed at 580.85. For more details, see the “Results of the Week” program.

World markets

Oilimplemented the “inverted head andshoulders,” and went into correction. When this correction ends (has ended) will depend on where exactly the KDT ended, which was the last wave in the movement from 42.05 (marking here), there are still options (see here). At the moment, the flat (more details here) is no longer the most likely option (although, perhaps, it is A in the bullish triangle), it is not yet possible to single it out. The net volume of long speculative positions fell by 64,400 last week, from 461,800 to 397,400. The number of operating towers in the US increased from 675 to 676. The week closed WTI - 50.32, Brent - 54.50. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market was 21%.

Euro / dollar(EUR/USD) completed wave C of a flat correction withMarch 2015 (the marking can be viewed here, the dollar index – here), respectively, wave X in the long-term marking, since the level of 1.21545 was broken (previously this signal was given by the dollar index, breaking the corresponding level), and is moving towards parity. Now the pair is in the fifth wave of this movement, which is KDT. Weekly close: 1.0943. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 13%.

Futures on the S&P indexWhat is the latest wave of growth, sayIt’s still difficult, most likely this is part of a corrective pattern (wave B of a triangle or flat) and whether it is finished or not is not yet clear. Closing the week - 3325.5. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 79%.

Goldis in wave B in a circle in the long-termmarkup (perhaps already finished it). The metal broke through 1366.08, therefore its wave B (or X) was a triangle, and it is already moving in wave C, and may have completed it (medium-term markings here). Closing the week - 1570.17. At the end of Thursday, the number of bulls in the market was 80%.

Bitcoinbroke the October low, so we have everythingthere is reason to believe that the impulse from the year before last low was completed on June 26 and now a correction to it is underway (or completed, which is more likely, because an upward impulse has been formed) (wave 2).

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