September 19, 2020

Will still be

At the moment when everything was lost, everyone died and went bankrupt (well, they did not die, okay, but for the most part they lost and the main thing of the promised breakthrough growth did not happen), it is strange to write an optimistic text.

The volume of own investments in crypto is verysmall, and if she does die, I personally will hardly be hurt from this. Those. there is no need to engage in self-hypnosis, as crypto enthusiasts do, who put everything on the crypto industry. But I will write why I think that there will still be. And it will be good.

I'll start from afar. I mined my first cue ball in the 12th year. And sold them in the 14th for a thousand bucks for a cue ball. There were not many, but after two months the cue ball was already worth two hundred and fifty. Maybe I didn’t pay off from below, but then it was the right trading decision. So I saw a rapid drop in bitcoin 4-5 times five years ago. And there are people who have seen such falls live not once, but more. But even those who mined in the 12th, there are extremely few, and those who saw what happened before, generally two times, and miscalculated. Why I write this will explain later.

In the meantime, let's try to estimate how muchcrypto should cost in general. Not specifically one coin, even the grandfather of the cue ball or some of the most super-tech of the new ones. In general, what may be the capitalization of all this circus. As a guideline, I suggest taking Internet technologies and separately evaluating them at the peak of the dot-com boom, and then falling and the subsequent long-term recovery.

Why internet? In my opinion, this is close and in many ways similarstory. Starting with tulip fever, there were many examples of explosive growth in the world, which then ended in an irrevocable fall. People tend to expect some new horizons, markets, advanced technologies. Are railways cool? Is smoky smoky locomotive an occasion for hype? Yes! A vacuum cleaner, refrigerator and TV ?! Sure! Incidentally, it was the vacuum cleaner that caused the crisis of the 29th year. Well, not the vacuum cleaner itself, but new technologies that promised new markets, new consumption. And these expectations were met. Then. But first they caused the market to grow, and then its decline. A steam locomotive, a refrigerator, a car, an airplane - these are all the things we use (well, the steam locomotive is no longer there, but by rail, yes). And today, these businesses bring clear, simple, and fairly small margins.

But just a quarter century ago, the same hysteriawas with the internet. And unlike the bubble of steam locomotives, most of us personally remember how it was. When a site with an empty page "homeless-dot-com" could cost a million dollars. Exactly a year and a half ago, the company that added the word blockchain to its name quadrupled its value on the stock exchange. Now the Internet is just a means. Any hairdresser, shoe repair, or some rutabaga farmer has his own website and that doesn't mean anything. Better to have a refrigerator than not to have. But the refrigerator is not an object of delight and lust.

But let's get back to the price again. First, Internet companies grew to heaven, thenfell, and then calmly reached the levels at which they were at their peak. Let's try to evaluate the cost of blockchain technology, based on a comparison with the Internet and the dotcom boom. Now we have no way to understand what capitalization the blockchain will have regarding the Internet. He will occupy a two, three, five times a large or as many times smaller share in the economy. We do not know. Actually, this is the weakest point in my reasoning. But I just accept as a starting point that its value for civilization, the economy for ordinary people will be comparable. What gives me the right to think so?

The blockchain has so far two and a half key technological advantages:

one. Blockchain allows you to remove many intermediate linksin financial calculations. You can throw out banks, brokers, intermediaries, exchangers, payment systems. You can almost instantly conduct a transaction to Korea, Zimbabwe, Antarctica, the ISS. And at the same time, in comparison with conventional bank transfers, actually pay three pennies. Without reference to the amount of transfer. It's good. But few

2. Anonymity / "Big Brother is watching you". It may seem strange, but it's about the same thing.same. Crypta, or rather Bitcoin, arose, among other things, as an anarchist challenge to the world of large uncles in suits, a call to the state: "we will make our money past your banks." And the crypt has found its niche in this regard, especially the criminal one.

But blockchain is not only anonymity, it is alsoand global transparency of all transactions. And it seems like big uncles in suits will find a way to make the crypto world entrance anonymous - KYC, identity, transaction tracking. This is a much greater level of control than before. And although this contradicts the original concept of financial “flower children”, it is also a huge source of value for this technology. Already, different coins give a different degree of anonymity, and at some point the crypt will be divided into “white” and “black”. And if this happens, then the value of blockchain for the economy will become enormous and undeniable. And its full legalization can happen extremely quickly. So these are not two separate points, but one and a half.

Therefore, take as a starting point that crypt andInternet markets of comparable scale. In the first quarter of 2000, NASDAQ peaked at $ 5.1 trillion at its peak. A few months later (by the fourth quarter of 2000), 2.3 trillion remained of it. Those. more than half of capitalization burned out in a very short time - a value quite typical for a crypto world.
But just to say that then there were 5 trillion and today it will be 5 is wrong.

Firstly, the dollar in 2001 is not the dollar in 2019. Inflation, no escape from it. So the estimate of $ 5 trillion can be increased by about 1.5 times.

Secondlythe availability of financial instruments forinvesting. Oddly enough, but at the dawn of the Internet, Internet brokers essentially did not exist. To invest in the market, you had to be a client of a traditional broker. To do this, you had to have free funds starting at least ten thousand dollars, and for most brokers the entry threshold was even higher - twenty, thirty thousand. This already greatly limits the number of players who could participate in the “madness” of dotcoms. In addition, financial markets were, in fact, accessible only to representatives of the Golden Billion - Americans and, to a lesser extent, Western Europeans.
For investing in cryptocurrencies suchno limits. Any Filipino, Moroccan, or even, God forgive me, a Ukrainian can buy for his twenty dollars a few satoshis, pieces of ether, or even some coin that he likes. So you can safely double the rating again. Total, with not very strict assumptions, we get an estimate of about $ 15 trillion.

Today, the capitalization of all cryptocurrencies is about $ 250 billion. At the moment, it costs so much, for example, Verizion communicationsoccupying only 21st place in the US market. And the first ones by capitalization exceed it by several times - Microsoft ($ 1,062 billion), Apple ($ 988 billion), Amazon ($ 883 billion). At the same time, even at its peak, the entire crypt did not exceed $ 800 billion, which is less than the capitalization of Microsoft alone. Tell me, have you heard that people have been enthusiastically discussing the same Amazon for two years, as they are discussing crypto?

There is never any money on the classic exchangewhich are painted there — shoulders, derivatives, small free-floats: no company can be sold on the exchange at the current price — selling any portfolio of any significance will collapse the price.

And the crypto market is still virtually unregulated. Dozens of “exchanges” have no licenses, regulators, or any control. And that trillion, which was at its peak in January 2018, is much more “drawn” than in traditional markets.

So what do we have? A very interesting and promising technology andtwo years of discussion everywhere. Shown to everyone is the story of crazy growth and the same crazy fall. And absolutely ridiculous capitalization, even at its peak, is not what it is now.
I see only one explanation. The 2017th and 2018th years were a crypto promotion. From a world that few geeks and professional speculators knew about, crypto became publicly available. A huge number of people had never heard of a crypt before, but they were shown a success story, then a fall and disappointment. The overwhelming majority did not go crazy, did not shout “native”, did not buy a crypt. But the fact that she is was conveyed to almost everyone. Those who did not buy the last time and calculated how much he would earn when the crypt was pearl up, relieved himself later, “well, it’s good that he didn’t come in, everything fell off.” But regret that I did not ride on such an interesting topic settled in many. Oh, to know - I would buy then.

Therefore, when the crypt begins to grow again andwill update the highs of 2018, a lot of passengers will break into this train. Those who did not buy a ticket last time. They have already been told that such a fall is not the first time, there is nothing to be afraid of, if something bad happens, then it will still be even cooler then, stay out. And they will stay out.

Crypt is a bubble. He will burst and wash away most of the hamsters that have not even begun to breed. And when this happens, the crypt will become a “steam locomotive” - the usual accessible and mass technology.

And one of those projects and coins who will remain,already exists now, as existed in 2001, most of the current information companies. So when the bubble bursts, everything will become as always. But so far he has not even pouted. They didn’t start to puff him out. It was just an MVP demo. Still will be.