This can be called wrong and inexplicable, but the price of Bitcoin (BTC) changes according to mathematicallaws, and this model has already worked twice. Will it be repeated a third time and what BTC rate to expect?
We have prepared an article with an overview of the forecast fromBenjamin Cowen. It is based on pure mathematics and accurately shows what the price of bitcoin will be during the next tuzemun, set its date and even gave a forecast of the value of the first cryptocurrency before halving.
Litecoin, halving, growth
Let’s start not immediately with an analysis of the promised forecast, butwith a short introduction, which is based on the following observation. There is an opinion, and it is not ours, that the price of Litecoin is slightly ahead of Bitcoin and shows a very similar chart. And remember how many expected Litecoin to grow before its halving in August 2019? After all, the price grew earlier, and halving also reduces the profitability of miners and can only be compensated for by an increase in cost.
In parallel with this opinion, there was another.That Litecoin had already reached its maximum before halving, when it rose to $140, and then the price will go down. But even the statement by the creator of Litecoin that the magic of halving is dictated only by the fact that people believe in it and buy it, did not prevent many from wanting to catch a growth that did not happen.
And if we stick to the theory that priceLightcoin can be an indicator for bitcoin, then we have a serious problem, because the growth before halving could already pass and now we will confidently crawl down.
Bitcoin $ 141,000
Video, which will be discussed now, authorshipBenjamin Cowan really deserves attention. Let's see what he did, and start with the logarithmic price of bitcoin, on which lines are plotted showing the dynamics of the course.
The next step is to set the price of bitcoin on the chart.at the peak and at the bottom. It will be almost $ 32, $ 1,150, and our last favorite native with a price of $ 19,500. Please note that you could get used to other prices, it all depends on which cryptocurrency exchange or portal you look at, but the order is generally the same.
Also on the chart we see three bottoms when the exchange rateBitcoin dropped first to $2, then to $177 and last time it was $3,200. Thus, the price of Bitcoin constantly increases its highs and lows from one market cycle to another, but the percentage of increase decreases. For example, between the last natives the growth was only 1,500%, although the previous cycle showed a return of 3,500%.
Then it’s even simpler - changing height betweenThe highs and lows of the price are the same. Therefore, we calculate these coefficients and use them to calculate how much Bitcoin will grow this time. And according to this forecast, in 2022 the price of Bitcoin will reach its new maximum and it will be $141,000. After which we will get another crypto winter and in about a year the rate of the first cryptocurrency will drop to $30,000.
This forecast is strong because it is based on simplefigures. And according to him, even if you bought bitcoins on a hype in December 2017 and remember cryptocurrencies only after six years, you can get one and a half times more than you invested. And if you wake up a year earlier, you can take your money multiplied by 7. Well, those who didn’t buy at the peak and may have caught the current bottom will receive about 45 Xs, which is pretty good overall.
But there is also bad news in this forecast for thosewho would like to see growth right now. After all, the price of Bitcoin is in the zone in which it usually was before the halving. And there is still room to go lower from the current level.
Call it logic, but you can countobstinacy or hope. But no matter what you call it, what we expect is important, and we will be happy if this information is useful to you, but remember that this is by no means a financial recommendation.
What observation can be made from thisforecast? Pure mathematics only works at price highs and lows, but within cycles the picture can change. Consequently, the behavior of the Bitcoin price in the immediate months leading up to the halving is variable, and it does not necessarily have to be a downward trend.
Also look at the price of bitcoin duringhalving and compare it with the one that was at the bottom of each current cycle. They differ at times. Therefore, we want to appeal to everyone who is waiting for the continuation of a strong fall and even a new bottom with the sale of bitcoins below $ 3,000. It is possible that in a couple of months you will have to bite your elbows disappointedly, because bitcoin will not come to the price that you set yourself for purchase. You remember that the market never does what is expected of it!</p>