The fall of bitcoin. Crypt as a leading indicator of the attitude to risk .. Risks for the market in June.

BTC / USD daily.
The histograms on the left are Volume by price
(volumes in price ranges, maximum volumes were inrange 8,000 - 10,000,
I think we will see the cue ball again at this level).
Please note: the drop of almost 2 times occurs at the maximum volume
(under the price is the strength oscillator of Alexander Elder, it is falling vertically,
below is the Chaikin volatility index; an increase in volatility indicates a possible reversal of the growing trend.

I consider crypt as an indicator:

on the expectation of continued stimulation and emission, is growing,

on expectations of tougher monetary policy, falls.

Personal opinion.
The fall of the crypt by almost 2 times at maximum volumes indicates the risks of tightening monetary policy (monetary policy) and the risks of avoiding risks (risk-off).
June and September are historically not good months for the stock market.
I plan to wait out June “on the fence” (a dollar account in Sberbank and OFZ 52001 (“linker”, OFZ with inflation protection).
He told me more about OFZ https://zen.me/1zF5Q3x3

Risk appetite depends on how large the amount you work with in the market is for you and how quickly YOU can earn that amount.
The higher the amount and the more time YOU need to earn it, the more important security is.
If the amount is significant, the main thing is not to lose it.

Let me remind you that now is the historical maximum of the US market assessment according to the Buffett indicator
(ratio of capitalization to GDP), more than 200%:

I remind you about the sharp economic recovery and the risk of inflation.

PMI Index (Purchasing Managers' Index, business activity index, one of the most important leading economic indicators)
May 21, 2021, reflecting activity in
the US service sector, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to
70.1 points compared to 64.7 points a month earlier,
According to data from Markit.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected the figure to be
64.5 points.
A score above 50 points indicates expansion of activity; below
- about the recession.
That is, the US economy is actively recovering, and unemployment is not falling (6.1%) because people do not want to work because of high benefits.
High benefits are beginning to be cancelled: they have already been canceled in 22 states.

Why is the economic recovery bad for the stock markets?

Economic recovery leads to higher inflation. To contain it, key rates will have to be raised.
The Fed's target for average inflation is 2% per annum.If the rate is significantly exceeded 2%, in order to prevent a flight from the dollar and capital outflow, the Fed will eventually raise the rate. Jerome Powell is the head of the Fed until February 2022.

Stock prices may continue to rise as long as
The US Federal Reserve will not begin to raise the key rate due to rising inflation; this will trigger a correction.

Due to the economy overheated by stimuli, state aid programs will not be extended.

Liquidity will flow from the stock markets to the real sector of the economy, and there will be less fuel for the growth of stocks.

Return on conservative debt instrumentswill become more attractive. Accelerating inflation leads to the growing popularity of SHORT US government bonds with inflation protection, the popularity of stocks is falling.

As soon as the sales of the shortest government bonds begin, sales may begin throughout the market and panic will begin.

Address in telegram@OlegTrading t.me/s/OlegTrading Chat with > 700 traders tx.me/OlegTradingChat
Telegram channels are free, I don’t sell anything on the channels: it’s a hobby.

CONCLUSION:
in June, I personally am “on the fence”.

Respectfully,
Oleg.