Being in Arizona State Prison, where he is serving a life sentence, does not prevent the founder of the closedUS authorities darknet market Silk RoadRoss Ulbricht closely monitor developments in the cryptocurrency market, including the price of bitcoin. And according to him, there is a chance that the first cryptocurrency will undergo a sharp drop.
Ulbricht’s new technical analysis is based on the Elliot Wave Model and suggests a possible drop in Bitcoin prices to almost $ 1200.
According to the founder of Silk Road, in the presentBTC moment is at the last stage of the first cycle of the bear market. Wave II consists of three primary wave levels, of which level C is the largest.
How deep can the drawdown be inthe time of Wave II is difficult to predict, however, as Ulbricht notes, during the two previous bear markets the fall was 86% and 94%. This suggests that investors can expect further strikes - a comparable drop in size could lower Bitcoin to $ 1200.
It is difficult to assess how long the current bear market will last, but historical data suggest that it may end in June this year, Ulbricht writes.
“Assessing the extent and duration of Wave II will be complex and inaccurate. But there is no limit for the fall, with the exception of $ 0, because Wave I started from scratch, "— he writes.
According to Ulbricht, the bearish scenario may beit is broken if Bitcoin returns to the highs of 2019 ($ 14,000), however, at this moment such a development of events seems to him extremely unlikely.
Ulbricht also resembles its own Decemberforecast when he suggested that in 2020 bitcoin could skyrocket to $ 100,000, but falling below the start level of Wave II ($ 4,200) in March is unlikely to make such a scenario viable. Nevertheless, if a rollback to these levels occurs again, Ulbricht will consider it as an excellent opportunity to buy - Wave III, he is convinced, will bring extremely positive results.
Earlier this week, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes announced a likely drop in Bitcoin to $ 3,000 before a new increase.
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