Smoothly and almost imperceptibly, the dominant on the world economic scene has changed.In an attempt to holdfundamental analysis, whether currencycommodity, stock or cryptocurrency markets - everything rests on China. This phenomenon may be temporary and does not indicate a weakening of the United States or a shift of the economic center to the East. No. The fact is that Donald Trump pushed foreign policy to the background, completely focusing on internal problems. This seems logical, since any changes for the better should begin from within, especially since the United States has long needed these changes. Reducing the debt burden, getting rid of the budget deficit, reforming the health care system, resolving the issue of Mexican illegal immigrants, getting rid of excessive spending on NATO funding, boosting exports - this is all that will help the United States avoid a recession and regain its title of world economic leader for many years, but for now ...
Trading pair EUR / USD
The dollar in October was mostly in redzone on fears that confrontation with China will slow down GDP growth, which could further mitigate monetary policy. However, recent GDP and unemployment data have returned the dollar to strength, demonstrating the stability of the US economy.
In addition, the export of American goods to Chinadecreased to $ 9 billion, and imports to $ 37 billion. As a result, the trade deficit with Beijing fell to $ 28 billion, to the lowest level since 2016, which had a positive effect on GDP.
Given the possible reduction in rates in the EU, as well asuncertainty over Brexit, the euro cannot compete with the dollar now. The figure of the technical analysis double top on the daily chart once again confirms the unwillingness of the single currency to go on the offensive. There is a possibility of the euro falling to the level of 1.09650, after which it will be possible to take a new acceleration and try to break through the level of 1.11500.
Brent brand oil</strong>
The dynamics of the price of black gold dependsdirectly from negotiations between the US and China, with the latest rally triggered by Beijing’s announcement of certain agreements with Washington, and not vice versa. However, to overcome the powerful historical resistance level at $ 62.5 Brent crude oil, it will take something more than an oral agreement. They should develop into documentary agreements that have legal force, otherwise the price will go down again.
Gold
The situation around the US and China forces stock marketsmarkets and markets for precious metals are behaving unusually, to put it mildly. Risky assets are growing, but so is gold as a defensive asset. Why is this happening?
While there was a thaw in the negotiations, stockThe markets decided to renew historic highs and continue to grow gradually. Gold is periodically adjusted, but the advantage is still in the hands of the bulls. As long as uncertainty remains in the Fed’s trade war and monetary policy in 2020, gold will be held near 1485 - 1500, protecting investors from potential risks. As soon as the situation on one of the issues becomes clear, gold will roll back to the region of 1400 and, possibly, lower. The figure of technical analysis is hinted at by a downward triangle.
Cryptocurrencies (BTC / USD)
The cryptocurrency market was no exception, the impactChina extends to Bitcoin. The focus remains on the policy of the Celestial authorities to support blockchain technology and the development of the digital economy, as well as not including cryptocurrency mining in the list of “undesirable industries”. Despite the lack of Bitcoin itself in these statements, the market still took the news positively, which is why BTC holds its positions in the region of 9,200 - 9,400.
Triangular main cryptocurrencyis waiting for a new trigger that will direct it either up or down. In any case, the denouement is already close and a significant role here is played by the connection with risky assets (stock and emerging markets). If investors decide that the market situation is favorable and the Risk On cycle can continue, we will probably see a rise in bitcoin and a possible update of the historical maximum by the end of the year.
While the US is dealing with domestic problems, China is driving markets. This will continue until a clear and definite picture appears in the policies of the Fed and Donald Trump.
Dmitry Lazukov, analyst at the cryptocurrency exchange Currency.com.
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