The trader spoke about the factors in favor of a further drop in the price of bitcoin

06/22/2020

Guest Materials

Disclaimer

Predictionsfinancial markets are private opinion theirauthors. Current analysis is not a guide to trade. ForkLog is not responsible for the results of work that may arise when using trading recommendations from the submitted reviews.

Practicing trader and ForkLog Hub resident Pavel Gromov talks about the current market situation.

Bitcoin failed to gain a foothold above $10,000, but the price stayed above $9,000.After hitting a local high at 3,232, the S&P 500 briefly went below 3,000 and then returned to 3,100.

What is the stock market?

Arguments for the fall:

• Investors start taking profits after a boom.Do those who bought on the recent drawdown, the S&P 500 will quickly return below 3000.
• In July, company reports for the second quarter will begin to be released. This is the period of the toughest quarantine, and the performance of most companies will be terrible.
• The threat of the second wave of the virus is becoming more real, and investors will remember what the first wave led to, and this can trigger a wave of sales.

The main argument for growth is the Fed's printing press and Donald Trump’s desire to win the November election. For this, it is important to prevent markets from collapsing.

Good vaccine news can push markets to new highs. The harbinger of such news may be an inexplicable increase in insider buying.

On the cryptocurrency market, in favor of falling, they say:

• the strong correlation between the price of bitcoin and the S&P 500;
• inability to break through $ 10,000 and even gain a foothold above $ 9500.

Fundamental factors favor growth. It is very possible that the next attempt to take $ 10,000 will be successful and final.

This week I expect increased volatility due to the expiration of options on Derebit and futures on CME.

What do the graphs say?

At the time of writing, buyers are testing resistance at $ 9430- $ 9450.

If it is successful (consolidation above $ 9450), we can expect continued growth to the upper boundary of the local downward channel ($ 9660- $ 9725):

TradingView BTC / USDT chart from TradingView

To continue the current upward movementyou need to keep support at $ 9295 (it is the middle of the downward channel and the upper limit of the short-term downward channel that bitcoin has broken at the current growth):

TradingView BTC / USDT chart from TradingView

In the medium term, we can distinguish an upward channel with growth targets to the levels of $ 10 556- $ 10 861:

TradingView BTC / USDT chart from TradingView

Cancellation of the upward scenario will be consolidation below $ 9295. In this case, we can expect a continuation of the flat or decline to the levels of $ 8700- $ 8800 with the risk of a more serious fall.