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What is TradeLog?
Hello SmartLab. My name is Kirill. I am a senior manager and founder of a closed-end fundTradeLog Capital Management. I began my fascinating work in the financial markets with the position of fundamental analyst in an investment company - then I developed the thinking of a profitable trader and investor, which was facilitated by a strong team of traders and analysts. When I gained such invaluable experience and earned my first 3 million rubles, I decided to develop further and began to train my friends and those who wanted to earn money in the market for free. If I saw that a trader is making progress, I already became an investor and gave money to management. So I formed a team and now we refer to ourselves as TradeLog.
Why did we launch the TradeLog project and what is it about?
Empirical over the years of work in the financial marketsby, we found that linear methods do not give reliable results in the long run, and the most effective method of analyzing markets is their opposite - non-linear.
In our blogs and public pages we detaildescribe how we work with these methods as a real-time analysis update. If we leave only the essence, then this is a trade journal (English - Trade Log).
The goal of our project is to create a qualitatively different community of traders who are aimed at obtaining real income from the market.
Non-linear method - grail?
The term nonlinear analysis,As I know, introduced by Bollinger, and this topic was further developed by Bill Williams.
Is there a gral TS? This is exactly the question to which the answer isnotneed to find. Such methods simply do not exist in nature.
However, when I began to form a team of traders with different psychological structures, I discovered an answer that was close to the truth, and was confirmed more than once in practice. The grail is the trader himself.
The trader decides when to enter a trade.The trader decides when to take profit or loss. The trader decides which analysis to use. The trader chooses the risk. The trader chooses how he should treat his results. The trader chooses discipline or chaos. The trader makes the final decision. For a number of these reasons, the trader's thinking has become the object of study.
What distinguishes linear and nonlinear methods?
</strong>I would like to ask you not to confuse analysis and trading strategies - these are completely different things.
The best explanation is the British coastline paradox. Read carefully. (Original)
The main method for estimating the length of a boundary or coastline was to superimposeNequal length segmentslon a map or aerial photograph using a compass. Each end of the segment must belong to the boundary being measured. By examining discrepancies in boundary assessment, Richardson discovered what is now calledRichardson effect:measurement scale is inversely proportional to the total length of all segments. That is, the shorter the ruler used, the longer the measured border. Thus, the Spanish and Portuguese geographers were simply guided by measurements of different scales.
What was most striking for Richardson was that when the valueltends to zero, the length of the coast tends to infinity. Initially, Richardson believed, based onEuclidean geometrythat this length reaches a fixed value,as is the case with regular geometric shapes. For example, the perimeter of a regular polygon inscribed in a circle approaches the length of the circle itself with an increase in the number of sides (and a decrease in the length of each side). In the theory of geometric measurements, such a smooth curve as a circle, which can be approximately represented as small segments with a given limit, is called a rectifiable curve.
More than ten years after completionMandelbrot developed a new branch of mathematics, fractal geometry, by Richardson of his work to describe such non-rectifiable complexes existing in nature as the endless coastline.
—Wikipedia.
The market has a chaotic structure, so linearmethods almost never work on it. Linear methods can be figures, levels, oscillators like RSI, etc. By themselves, they do not work for one reason - classic technology. the analysis is based on the assumption that history repeats itself. Is this close to reality?
If this were so, investors would cyclically buy Bitcoin for $ 100 every 7 years, and sell for 20,000. Why not? After all, history must be repeated.
However, in practice everyone understands that this is not so,because this simply contradicts common sense. The more people accept Bitcoin as a means of payment, the more valuable it becomes and vice versa. This speaks to the variability of markets, which reflect the variability of people and their social arrangements. The Bitcoin example is given for the sake of example.
The "postulate" of nonlinear analysis is precisely the completely opposite idea - "markets never repeat themselves."
In conclusion, I will say Bill Williams indicators(Alligator, AO, fractals) are not actually used in non-linear analysis for trading on them, but they are very effective for reading market characteristics. Answer: the grail is how effectively a trader adapts to these characteristics.
</strong>To explain what it isreading market characteristics, it will take hours of our and your time, so in this article we will not consider this issue.
Now is the best time, so now anyone can learn the non-linear method of market analysis, as well as:
1. Reduce the time spent on analysis to 10 seconds.
2. Reduce the risk from the transaction to 1 bar.
3. Capture most of market movements.
4. Strictly observe the ratio of profit and risk.
5. Gain psychological resistance to stress.
6. Move to a new level of systematicity.
Since this is not a trading system, but a method of analysis, it does not matter the trading pair, day of the week, or even the timeframe.
“Answers are received by the one who asks questions.”
P.S. 95 +% of our analysis is in our Telegram channel (link in the profile). Subscribe!
