Friday everyone!
Oil continues to move smoothly upward, almost against the rest of the Commodities market.Even the record jump at the beginning of this weeksilver hints at a reversal. And copper, which for many is an indicator of the health of the global economy, fell heavily yesterday. The dollar, which has again turned to growth, brings back thoughts that there are fears about a slowdown in the global economy. But oil does not want to fall yet, and in the new package of sanctions against Russia, or rather in terms of the price ceiling for Russian oil, there are still many questions and it is not clear how it will technically work. The important point will be whether Brent can fix above the $96 level.
In GS, for example, they are sure that the recent reductionproduction from OPEC+ will push the oil price tag above $100 and raised their forecast for the end of the year to $110. However, the bank's analysts also added that the production cuts would be gradual so as not to greatly harm demand, because in the conditions of already depleted reserves, this could lead to too much growth, and then a collapse in prices, which OPEC is clearly not interested in, so in the end next year, the trickiest bank on Wall Street has an oil target of $115.
American stock indices startedbe corrected, but so far it looks exactly like a correction and a slight profit-taking after a rapid growth, the hope for closing the first week in a good plus still remains. The drivers of the market are still the same, the Fed is still standing its ground, and the last statement from its representative was to raise the rate by another 1.25% this year, there is little positive for the quotes. All eyes will be on today's non-farm payrolls data. They are expected to be bad, if so, then according to the usual model, bad means good, this will give a strong impetus to the market up.
In the meantime, JP Morgan has calculated that retailInvestors in America are dumping stocks at the fastest pace since the 2020 crash. Apple's tech giants Google and Microsoft have been hit the hardest. In general, of course, the behavior is quite classic, perhaps now those who joined the market on highs a little less than a year ago are fleeing and now they consider investments to be scammers and leave the market. In general, this is a good sign, because when absolutely everything is bought, including grandmothers at the entrance, this means that the holiday is over and it's time to sell. And when mass sales come, hamsters and grannies grumble that they were deceived again and everyone is selling, this means that the bottom is not far and you can start buying. For some reason, it seems to many that it is enough to come to the financial markets and everyone is poured, but this is not so, money is won here and by very few.
For the American stock market, September is usuallyis an unimportant month, and October often corrects this situation. For example, some call October the “bear market killer.” Because there are cool statistics about all bear markets. Since 1946, the average decline in the SnP500 index has been approximately 30%, and the duration of bear markets lasts an average of 11.5 months. But the most important thing is that in 6 out of 17 cases the bear market ended in October. At the moment, the SnP500 index has lost 22% and is in a bearish phase for the 10th month, so there is a statistical probability that the end may be about to come, but there are also factors that say that it is not close yet, for example, the hawkish Fed and geopolitics, which so far it is only getting worse and not moving towards a peaceful settlement. Therefore, there is a feeling that if the bottom comes, it will still be later than October.
The Russian market waited for the new 8th packagesanctions and the reaction to it is rather no than negative. The indices sank quite slightly, because firstly there are many questions about how the most terrible sanctions from the package will work, and secondly, it’s not scary anymore. The ruble, due to the absence of any new tough geopolitical statements, is consolidating around the usual level of 60 rubles. Some analysts predict the status of the yuan as a new reserve currency for Russia, our reserves in it will most likely only increase, which can lead to an increase in the yuan exchange rate against the ruble by 30%, analysts say. This is all great, but we should not forget about the geopolitical threat of a military conflict in China, which has not gone away yet.
Speaking of Asia, Japan's stock market is pretty good.rebounded after the American one, but the main thing is that this year it showed far less negative dynamics than the Americans and lost less than 6%, which makes it a safe haven against the backdrop of global turbulence. What can not be said about the Japanese yen, although the Japanese Central Bank began to intervene there for the first time in 24 years, this may serve as a signal for an imminent reversal.
Well, there hasn’t been Bitcoin for a long time, because it seemsas, and goes along with the classical markets, but stock indices are at least gradually changing levels, and the main crypt seems to be trying to become a stablecoin around the round figure of $20,000. This is bad for all the romantics who want to ride it to the moon and become billionaires, but good for the crypt itself, then it has every chance of becoming a real means of exchange and will have an interesting future, and not like it is now.
the day will be great anyway! And the weekend is a total blast! Believe in the good and do not regret anything! Successful transactions! PIS Yo!
