markets report 25/3/22

Friday everyone!

The long-awaited opening of stock trading has taken place! Despite apocalyptic scenarios andstatements by the American President that ourthe market will simply explode at the opening and reset to zero, and he took it and grew. The RTS index showed a miserable fall of 1.5%, but the MOEX index showed an increase of 4% and most of the 33 bold stocks admitted to trading rose, and very powerfully, commodity companies, especially oil companies, grew stronger than the rest, winning back the oil that had flown up while they did not trade themselves.

Do not forget 2 important points, prohibitedselling short, that is, you can’t play short, and most importantly, you can’t sell our shares to non-religious people, and their mood is obvious, and besides, according to analysts, they have more than half of the free float in their hands, so it’s too early to think that once the infernal strait did not happen, then all the worst is behind. Someday Nerezov will be released, that's when the question is. In the meantime, physicists are buying our securities at all the same low levels, someone closes unrealized shorts, and someone sells either the entire pose or its shoulder part thanks to the Universe that their deposit was not broken at the opening somewhere below.

Don’t rush and regret missed opportunitiescosts. Because even if shorts may be allowed in the foreseeable future, then the same shorts may be released in a week, or maybe in a year, because here the issue is more political than economic. And most likely it will be decided in terms of you for us, and we for you. With a high degree of probability, this will be associated with the unfreezing of our reserves, such as when they release our money there, we will release their money here. Therefore, it is better to buy our shares at new lows gradually and over a long investment horizon. Because the geopolitical situation has not yet begun to resolve, but is only getting worse. For example, the day before yesterday they suggested that all unfriendly countries pay for gas in rubles; yesterday, if you don’t like it, you can pay in gold. If you don’t like gold, then the Duma is already discussing accepting crypto as payment for raw materials. While the West continues to generate new packages of sanctions and, for example, the most current ones are aimed at freezing transactions with our gold and cryptocurrencies. Therefore, our market will still react to all this with straits, and then we can gradually gain an investment position in our shares. And cryptocurrencies continue to grow, despite potential restrictions; many experts say that crypto will gain greater popularity due to restrictions on the movement of classical currencies.

The Central Bank also indicated that in the near futureExchange-traded mutual funds will most likely continue trading because it has become possible to calculate their fair value. Trading in shares will take place in a limited mode for now and until 14:00 in the afternoon, so that people do not freak out too much because, due to strong fluctuations in many securities such as ROSN and PHOR, discrete auctions had to be launched yesterday (this is when trading participants place only limit orders with prices indicated , but they don’t see the glass, such a story greatly cools the ardor). Meanwhile, shorts have already been allowed in OFZ stores. Some private companies have already started talking about canceling dividends this year, but experts believe that state-owned companies will not refuse dividends because the government will want to collect them in the current difficult situation, so shares that have fallen in price greatly, such as VTB, where the likelihood of non-payment of dividends is still low, may be of interest. And in general, given the limited withdrawal of capital, shares will gain popularity as a salvation from inflation.

In America yesterday better than expected data onunemployment benefits and the industrial production index, which returned positive to the stock markets as the economy recovers, in addition, oil has flown as much as 3%, because European countries have not yet been able to agree on a collective refusal of Russian supplies. Chip manufacturers looked good after NVDA said it would be interested in using INTC in the production of its chips. These companies and semiconductor ETF SOXX rose 5% to 10% yesterday. The Dollar Index continues to grow to a local maximum against major currencies because the market is considering a further increase in the rate. The yield of treasury 10-year notes also resumed growth.

Bloomberg analysts noted that the correlationshares of energy companies with a broad market turned negative for the first time since 2001, and this imbalance may indicate the approaching recession.

 

Happy Friday everyone and have a great weekend!