Futures and options rates do not indicate BTC growth

After a three-week consolidation, Bitcoin resumed its rise to new historical highs and updated themabout $ 61,800. On the FTX December futures, the cryptocurrency is already trading above $ 74,000.

"This is a leverage, extremely optimistic traders are turning the curve up."- writes analyst Alex Kruger.

According to the Bybt service, funding rates forthe futures market partially entered the overheated zone. On Binance, the figure climbed to 0.0945%, signaling the prevalence of margin-long positions. On OKEx and Huobi, values ​​remain closer to neutral for now - 0.0145% and 0.0367% - and overall are still significantly lower than could be seen in February before the multibillion-dollar liquidation.

According to the Skew service, participants in the options market estimate the probability of a rise in the price of bitcoin above $ 100,000 by the end of March at 1%, but by the end of April it reaches 8%, and by the end of December - 20%.

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Statistics were collected when bitcoin wasbelow $ 60,000. To reach the specified level, it must rise another 62%. For context, the price of the cryptocurrency is up 44% from the February lows.

Analyst Ben Lilly notes in a recent report,that over the past week, Bitcoin has been moving in a "two steps forward, one back" pattern, and the rise in its price was accompanied by four pullbacks of 5%. According to the analyst, this is a sign of healthy profit-taking.

Lilly states that wallets between 100 and 1,000 BTC currently hold 63,000 more BTC than on Feb 28.

“This class of wallets was among those whothe best forecast for the upturn in 2017 was. The last time we observed such an aggressive accumulation was in August 2017. The high of that market cycle was not seen for another four months. We are trying to convey that bitcoin has room to grow. If he decides to jerk, he will do it "- writes Ben Lilly.

Analyst Philip Swift supports his colleague, noting that Bitcoin balances across Coinbase and Bitstamp wallets have dropped significantly since mid-December 2020.

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Swift states that this is due to “people andinstitutions that withdraw bitcoins from crypto-exchanges to cold storage. " Some of these coins are converted into WBTC tokens for use in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space, so they cannot be considered fully withdrawn from circulation, he admits.

Over the past weeks, investors who have held bitcoin for less than three years have begun to reduce their assets, and for more than three years - to increase them.

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According to Swift, this indicates the continued possibility of a significant rise in the price of bitcoin.

"From this graph, you can see where we are now in relation to the 2017 cycle, as the lines behave in a similar way and are approaching the middle of the cycle."He adds.

ExoAlpha Investment Director David Lifshitzclaims that from February 22 to March 11, Bitcoin began to form a "cup and handle" pattern, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend. The decline on March 11 became the “top of the cup” and was caused by profit-taking after the rise from $ 45,000 to $ 57,000. A slight pullback in the rate followed by a continuation upwards in this case will form a “handle”.

Where is it more profitable to buy bitcoin? TOP-5 exchanges

For a safe and convenient purchase of cryptocurrencies with a minimum commission, we have prepared a rating of the most reliable and popular cryptocurrency exchanges that support deposits and withdrawals of funds inrubles, hryvnias, dollars and euros.

The reliability of the site is primarily determinedtrading volume and number of users. By all key metrics, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world is Binance. Binance is also the most popular crypto exchange in Russia and the CIS, since it has the largest cash turnover and supports transfers in rubles from bank cardsVisa / MasterCardand payment systemsQIWI, Advcash, Payeer.

Especially for beginners, we have prepared a detailed guide: How to buy bitcoin on a crypto exchange for rubles?

Rating of cryptocurrency exchanges:

#	Exchange:	Website:	Rating:
1	Binance (Editor's Choice)	https://binance.com	9.7
2	Bybit	https://bybit.com	7.5
3	OKEx	https://okex.com	7.1
4	Exmo	https://exmo.me	6.9
5	Huobi	https://huobi.com	6.5

The criteria by which the rating is set in our rating of crypto-exchanges:

• Work reliability&#8212; stability of access to all functions of the platform, including uninterrupted trading, deposits and withdrawals of funds, as well as the duration of the market and daily trading volume.
• Commissions– the amount of commission for trading operations within the platform and withdrawal of assets.
• Feedback and support– we analyze user reviews and the quality of technical support.
• Convenience of the interface– we evaluate the functionality and intuitiveness of the interface, possible errors and failures when working with the exchange.
• Platform Features– availability of additional features &#8212; futures, options, staking, etc.
• final grade– the average number of points for all indicators determines the place in the ranking.

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