Bitcoin hasn't seen three positive quarters in a row since 2017

According to Skew, BTC hasn't seen three positive quarters in a row since 2017, and if Q4 of this year Bitcoinwill end in profit, this will be his first streak of three profitable quarters in three years.

Quarters IV have been predominantly bearish for bitcoin since 2018

But historical data does not speak in favor of bitcoin: for the last two years, following the results of the 4th quarter, the price of BTC fell by 42.54% and 13.6% in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

Bitcoin's historical quarterly returns. :Skew.com

From the end of 2016 to 2018, bitcoin showed five consecutive profitable quarters, at the end of 2017, fixing a historic high against the dollar.

Analysts attribute this historic rally totwo main factors. First, massive demand from retail investors in major markets, including the US and South Korea. Second: in May 2016, another halving took place, and this event, in general, is an important growth factor for the BTC price.

"Halving" the block reward rendersupward pressure on the price of BTC, reducing the flow of new coins. Halving slows down the rate at which new BTC is created, which over time leads to a decrease in the number of coins circulating in the market.

Thus, BTC tends toshow significant growth after halvings occurring at intervals of approximately four years. The problem is that in 2016 the rally started only 15 months after the halving, and some analysts have already noted the similarities between the beginning of the current halving cycle and the previous ones.

The last halving to date took place in May this year. If the same cycle as in 2016 repeats, then, most likely, BTC will see an explosive rally by the last quarter of 2021.

However, since 2018, in Q4 Bitcoinshowed negative profitability. The reasons for the cyclical nature of periods of low returns can be different. American investors can actively sell BTC at the end of the year to simplify tax reporting, and Asian users - to free up additional funds ahead of the New Year holidays.

But there are two factors that could potentially strengthen the bulls' position in the final stretch of this year's run: gold's rally and dollar weakness.

Strategists of a large Swiss investmentUBS Bank expects gold to grow continuously throughout 2021. This forecast coincides with the fundamental weakness of the dollar against other reserve currencies.

What traders expect in the near future

With regard to the short-term prospects for the BTC rate, traders' forecasts are becoming more cautious, especially against the background of the dollar currency index finding some support ahead of the US elections.

USD Currency Index, 1-day chart

Technical analysts are watching closelytwo important price levels for BTC - $ 9600– $ 10.000 and $ 11.000– $ 11.200. As we have already written, the loss of the support zone of $ 9600– $ 10,000 may lead to a serious fall, although from the point of view of TA this scenario seems unlikely. Whale movements indicate that support in the ~ $ 9800 zone has weakened, which could lead to a larger correction.

1-day bitcoin price chart with key levels from a TA point of view.

 

The article does not contain investment recommendations,all the opinions expressed express exclusively the personal opinions of the author and the respondents. Any activity related to investing and trading in the markets carries risks. Make your own decisions responsibly and independently.

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