Bitcoin at a low start: the bulls have all the cards in their hands for the development of an upward momentum

Bitcoin is off to a low start.Return above the lows of $32,800 – 33,000 on Friday formed a “bear trap” and now the bulls have all the cards in their hands to develop upward momentum towards the upper limit of the $30,000 consolidation – 40,000, stretching from May. 

There is a little left – suppress what remainsresistance at $34,600 to avoid a rollback to $33,000. It is possible that the latter will still have to be due to fears of the release of tomorrow's consumer price statistics in the US, which will affect the perception of the timing of the Fed's tapering of the programredemption of assets, which will predetermine the attitude of investors towards risk in general, including in relation to cryptocurrencies.

Judging by FOREX, the odds of selling the dollar and howConsequence, bitcoin purchases are high. The data will be released on Tuesday, July 13 at 15:30. The bulls in the cryptocurrency market have time. There are still six days left until 16,240 BTC is unlocked in the Grayscale Investments (GBTC) bitcoin trust (July 18). Starting from this date, according to JPMorgan Chase, it is impossible to exclude the exit from this instrument of its large holders, which may become a catalyst for the resumption of the downward dynamics with the prospect of a decline up to $ 20,000.

But the threat most likely comes not from GBTC, but fromthe likelihood of general risk aversion under the influence of signals from the Fed. And those, judging by the emerging macro statistics, will appear only in August-September. 

In the meantime, on-chain data favors buyers.The so-called Liveliness ration, calculated by Glassnode, has recently shown higher accumulation rates by holders compared to the rate of continued selling at a loss by short-term players. Of the 140,000 bitcoins that entered exchanges from April to June, 28% have already returned back to cold wallets.

According to Santiment, the addresses of whales with 10,000– 100,000 BTC accumulated a record 10.91% of the entire supply of the first cryptocurrency, on wallets with balances over 100,000 BTC – maximum for 27 months 3.64% of the issue.

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio indicator continuesupdate minimums, indicating significant potential for returning buyers. Most likely, most of them will continue to take a wait-and-see attitude – By July 26, the SEC will present a report on investor protection on crypto exchanges, the current pressure on Binance serves as a good “warm-up” for this.

Even the Fed in its latest financial reportstability mentioned the risks for individuals from investing in cryptocurrencies. Although in the short term, the market is still positioned to deploy the growing momentum.

Block Research analysts also noted that in the second quarter of this year, the volume of venture funding in projects related to cryptocurrency and blockchain increased by 90%.

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