What awaits the cryptocurrency market in 2020?

For 2020, many predictions were presented by well-known investors, analysts, and crypto enthusiasts.The most significant event, of course, will bethe upcoming Bitcoin halving, which is traditionally considered a kind of trigger that can push Bitcoin, and with it the entire market, to growth. But let's take things in order.
First of all, Bitcoin is expected to grow stronglyand the market as a whole. Most likely, not only the highs of 2019 will be covered, but also the ATR of the main cryptocurrency. The following factors may be the reason for growth.

US regulators approve the launch of LIBRA

Against the backdrop of China's recent announcement of the starttesting of the state CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), the United States will likely take some measures to confront its eastern opponent in this matter. Since there is already a stablecoin project LIBRA, which could be used by over a billion people, it would be more reasonable to create a counterweight on its basis, or to take it under government control and strict regulation, which will significantly save the US administration time and resources. However, this will require permission to launch the token. In any case, the issue remains open and will be resolved during 2020.

Escalation of the US vs China trade war

Reciprocal sanctions and trade tariffs between the twoSince 2018, the world's largest economies have not allowed the stock market to update price highs, and when negative news appeared from the political scene, the markets periodically fell impulsively. It is likely that these events were the trigger for the growth of the crypto market in the first half of 2019. Investors, in search of new profitable instruments that can become an alternative to stock markets, have turned their attention to the crypto industry. During periods of aggravation of relations between the United States and China, Bitcoin periodically reacted positively to these events and showed growth.

Now relations between the countries have normalized,however, this does not mean at all that the issue was resolved finally and irrevocably. We have already witnessed how, after speeches about reaching agreements, both sides continued to introduce duties. Trump will use all available means to achieve parity in trade relations with Beijing, and therefore there is no point in hoping for an end to this confrontation. As soon as the fragile peace and friendship again give way to trade and currency wars, investors will leave the stock markets and look for alternatives.

Launch TON

The influx of a significant mass of new participants andThe launch of the TON project can bring new money to the cryptocurrency market, as well as a general wave of positivity. According to lawyers and representatives of the project, the court ban on the distribution of Gram tokens, which the SEC achieved, has no basis, since the TON ICO was carried out in strict accordance with US law. Nevertheless, the issue will be resolved in court in April 2020 and the possibility cannot be ruled out that the parties will ultimately come to certain agreements, especially since there has already been a precedent. The EOS project was fined $24 million for conducting an unregistered ICO and despite disagreement with the regulator, the company paid the fine and the issue was resolved. In fact, nothing prevents the TON project from going the same way, paying a fine and finally closing this issue.

US stock market crash

The cheap money policy that contributed toThe almost unreversed growth of stock markets since 2009 has formed another bubble, the collapse of which investors have been waiting for since 2018. Now the largest investors and sources of money in the stock markets are the companies themselves, which carry out share repurchases, the so-called Buyback, which helps keep the markets from collapsing. At the end of 2018, buyback beat the previous historical maximum of 2007 (just before the crisis) and for the first time since the same time exceeded capital expenditures (Capex) and dividends.

Hedge funds are also adding fuel to the fire.They are starting to accumulate short positions in the stock markets. For example, a large and well-known American hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, together with the giant of the investment world, Goldman Sachs, made a bet of $1 billion on the fall of the stock market by March 2020 and at the moment this is the largest short position in the history of stock markets.

Bitcoin deflationary model

Bitcoin never ceases to be in demand bothboth from the crypto community and from institutional investors who are now able to trade it legally, thanks to the launch of the Bakkt platform. The deflationary model of Bitcoin, which reduces emission every 4 years, only contributes to an increase in its deficit over time, and as is known from the main market law, deficit leads to an increase in the value of the asset.

Today, many people know about Bitcoin, but do not own it.more than 3% of the world's population. The capitalization of the entire crypto market is less than 1/5 of Apple's capitalization. At the moment, a little more than 18 million coins have been issued, some of which have been irretrievably lost, and less than 3 million are left to mine. These numbers are enough to understand that the value of Bitcoin, expressed in six-digit number, is not a matter of such a distant time. This is unlikely to happen in 2020, but we have the right to expect updates to the high of 2017.

Altcoin season

Despite the fact that altcoins continuefollow the dynamics of bitcoin, Pavel believes that in 2020 they will gradually begin to form their own model of behavior and we will witness the new season of altcoins. A detailed explanation of this phenomenon, the trader published in the telegram channel "Altsezon". However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the repetition of 2017, when everything grew, will no longer be. Growth will only affect top altcoins, most other coins with low capitalization will eke out a miserable existence and nothing more.

Derivatives and margin trading market growth

Trend for the development of the cryptocurrency marketderivatives and margin trading, which is attracting more retail traders from traditional financial markets, started in 2018, grew in 2019 and will continue in 2020. In terms of trading volumes, the derivatives market will catch up with the spot market. The development of the cryptocurrency trading industry and the emergence of professional tools will have a positive impact on trading digital assets, as a result of which trading volumes will increase and, together with other factors, will push prices to new heights.

To sum up, we can conclude that now inThere are many factors in the world that, with a synergistic effect, will allow the crypto market to reach a new level and reach new heights in the coming years.

Pavel Gromov, crypto trader and author of the Telegram channel “Chief in Crypto”.