November 29, 2022

WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

Forex broker Weltrade presents up-to-date analytics of the latest news on the Financial markets, as well as consider what to expect in the near future.

The fall of the dollar that we observed yesterdayunexpectedly stopped and even turned around somewhat after the publication of business activity index statistics. It came out slightly worse than forecasts, below 50, which indicates a certain instability of economic growth. On this wave, the dollar began to move away from recent highs and we can say that while its further growth is in doubt.

We are now observing movements within ranges,but by and large nothing significant happens. We will examine in more detail for each individual instrument what exactly is happening in each of them and what are the possible prospects.


WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

So, let's start with the pound, GBP / USD the mostdepressed currency, I would call it that. Brexit is approaching, that is, October 31 is the deadline, and so far we do not see any hints that this date will be postponed or moved to a later date.

Of course, everything that happens around the meeting roomprocess creates a general negative. The Prime Minister is threatened with impeachment, which, by and large, the market has not even particularly reacted to, and he assesses the whole situation very negatively. On this wave of optimism about the pound, which we noted with growth above 1.25 - this optimism has disappeared.

The pair moved below 1.23, we observed even 1.22, but today there was a rebound, after the publication of weak data from the USA.

Despite the general weakening of the dollar, the pound alsocontinues to decline and at the moment the pound is estimated as the weakest currency among the traded instruments, this leaves an imprint on its dynamics.

In the near future, we will see a decline towards 1.21-1.20. Last time at these mark, quite powerful support was formed, from which there was a good rebound.

Until December 31, there are no serious reasons for is supposed, well, unless London and Brussels suddenly unexpectedly agree on something that the market does not expect. So far we can conclude that the pound will continue its downward movement.

XAU / USD (Gold)

Let's turn to gold. As has been noted many times in our comments, the $ 1,480 mark, which for a long time remained support, could not resist yesterday, gold fell $ 1,460-1,459. However, gold did not reach the next support level of $ 1440-1450. Bad statistics from the United States prevented and allowed gold to strengthen quite sharply. Now we are celebrating testing of the level of $ 1485, only on the other hand - from the bottom.

WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

The situation here is not very certain from a technical point of view. If gold manages to gain a foothold above the band of $ 1,480 1,485, then formally the chances of further growth become much greater.

We know that gold growth is just a reactionthe weakening of the dollar, respectively, if the dollar starts to rise again, gold is likely to begin to decline. After all, there were no other reasons for growth, the situation with geopolitics is stable, that is, there are no resonant news headlines that would lead to an escape from risk, we have not yet noted this. Thus, we assume that the dollar and gold are now in antiphase.

The support level for the near future is $ 1470, the resistance level is $ 1485, if gold breaks higher, the natural target will be $ 1500, a round number and a psychological barrier.

We call this period of consolidation, the price should defend the next movement, and it is difficult to say where it will be at this stage.

Brent Oil

Consider the situation with oil. Here, by and large, everything goes without any surprises - oil is declining, recent levels of $ 67-68 have already been forgotten.

WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

Brent Oil is trading below $ 59, veryit is likely that a move down to $ 58 will happen today. $ 58 - this mark is quite important, this is the lower level of the range of $ 58-61, which is currently Brent. Oil is quite comfortable in this narrow range and no reason for serious fluctuations is expected here in the near future.

If oil successfully breaks below $ 58, then the totalThe immediate goal is the $ 55 mark. That is, the recent lows, which we observed more recently. It seems to me that a sharp downward movement should not be expected yet.

Perhaps a downward movement will be triggered by an aggravation in the trade war of the United States and China, but so far we do not see news headlines on this subject.


As for the euro / dollar pair, the situation is twofold. EUR / USD is below the level of 1.10, which indicates a continued downward trend.
WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

Several times the euro approached the mark of 1.0880, they were not allowed to fall below, obviously, there is demand there. There are no strong fluctuations in this pair, in general, we call this consolidation period between 1.0900-1.0950. There is no volatility here either, because sharp sharp long pulses in one direction have become very rare here.

BTC / USD (Bitcoin)

At the end of our review, we turn tocrypto market. Bitcoin is now in a consolidation phase, the $ 7,700 mark has become the minimum that the first cryptocurrency managed to bounce off of. The fact that Bitcoin is still above $ 8,000 indicates a stabilization period, the downward pressure has weakened.

WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

Now we are celebrating consolidation in the traditional range of about $ 500, which are quite common in this asset. Now Bitcoin is kept in a narrow range of $ 8000-8500.

There is no special news here, reasons forsignificant optimism, as well as panic, is not noted. While we will observe the consolidation, but technically Bitcoin looks to continue to decline. If bitcoin rises above the band of $ 9000-9200, then the technical prospects will be quite good for it and you can expect a movement higher towards $ 10,000.

Vasily Barsukov (Chief Dealer Weltrade)