February 22, 2024

WELTRADE company blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began its decline. Bitcoin – landing or further descent?

Forex broker Weltrade presents current analytics of the latest news in the Financial markets, as well aswill look at what to expect in the near future.

The fall of the dollar that we observed yesterdayunexpectedly stopped and even turned around somewhat after the publication of business activity index statistics. It came out slightly worse than forecasts, below 50, which indicates a certain instability of economic growth. On this wave, the dollar began to move away from recent highs and we can say that while its further growth is in doubt.

We are now observing movements within ranges,but by and large nothing significant happens. We will examine in more detail for each individual instrument what exactly is happening in each of them and what are the possible prospects.

GBP/USD

WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

So, let's start with the pound, GBP / USD the mostdepressed currency, I would call it that. Brexit is approaching, that is, October 31 is the deadline, and so far we do not see any hints that this date will be postponed or moved to a later date.

Of course, everything that happens around the meeting roomprocess creates a general negative. The Prime Minister is threatened with impeachment, which, by and large, the market has not even particularly reacted to, and he assesses the whole situation very negatively. On this wave of optimism about the pound, which we noted with growth above 1.25 - this optimism has disappeared.

The pair moved below 1.23, we observed even 1.22, but today there was a rebound, after the publication of weak data from the USA.

Despite the general weakening of the dollar, the pound alsocontinues to decline and at the moment the pound is estimated as the weakest currency among the traded instruments, this leaves an imprint on its dynamics.

In the near future, we will see a decline towards 1.21-1.20. Last time at these mark, quite powerful support was formed, from which there was a good rebound.

Until December 31, there are no serious reasons for growthit is assumed, well, unless London and Brussels suddenly unexpectedly agree on something that the market does not expect. For now we can conclude that the pound will continue its downward movement.

XAU / USD (Gold)

Let's turn to gold. As has been noted many times in our comments, the $ 1,480 mark, which for a long time remained support, could not resist yesterday, gold fell $ 1,460-1,459. However, gold did not reach the next support level of $ 1440-1450. Bad statistics from the United States prevented and allowed gold to strengthen quite sharply. Now we are celebrating testing of the level of $ 1485, only on the other hand - from the bottom.

WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

The situation here remains unclear from a technical point of view. If gold manages to consolidate above the $1480-1485 band, then formally the chances for further growth become much greater.

We know that gold's rise is just a reactionto a weakening dollar, respectively, if the dollar starts to rise again, gold will most likely begin to decline. After all, there were no other reasons for growth, the geopolitical situation is stable, that is, we have not yet noted any resonant news headlines that would lead to flight from risk. Thus, we will assume that the dollar and gold are now in antiphase.

The support level for the near future is $ 1470, the resistance level is $ 1485, if gold breaks higher, the natural target will be $ 1500, a round number and a psychological barrier.

We call this period of consolidation, the price should defend the next movement, and it is difficult to say where it will be at this stage.

Brent Oil

Consider the situation with oil. Here, by and large, everything goes without any surprises - oil is declining, recent levels of $ 67-68 have already been forgotten.

WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

Brent oil is trading below $59, veryit is likely that a move down to $58 will happen today. $58 is a fairly important mark; it is the lower level of the $58-61 range in which Brent oil is currently located. Oil is quite comfortable in this narrow range and there are no reasons for serious fluctuations in the near future.

If oil successfully breaks below $58, then the totalThe nearest target is $55. That is, recent lows that we observed quite recently. It seems to me that we should not expect a sharp downward movement yet.

Perhaps a downward movement will be triggered by an aggravation in the trade war of the United States and China, but so far we do not see news headlines on this subject.

EUR / USD

As for the euro / dollar pair, the situation is twofold. EUR / USD is below the level of 1.10, which indicates a continued downward trend.
WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

Several times the euro approached the 1 mark.0880, they didn’t let it go lower, obviously there is demand there. There are no strong fluctuations in this pair; in general, let's call this period of consolidation between 1.0900-1.0950. There is also no volatility here, because here sharp long-term impulses in one direction have become very rare.

BTC / USD (Bitcoin)

To conclude our review, let us turn tocrypto market. Bitcoin is now in a consolidation phase; the $7,700 mark became the minimum from which the first cryptocurrency managed to rebound. The fact that Bitcoin still remains above $8,000 indicates a period of stabilization; downward pressure has weakened.

WELTRADE Blog | Why did gold shoot up? Oil began to decline. Bitcoin - upset or further decline?

We are now noticing consolidation in the traditional range of approximately $500, which is quite common in this asset. Currently Bitcoin is in a narrow range of $8000-8500.

There is no special news here, reasons forsignificant optimism, as well as panic, is not noted. While we will observe the consolidation, but technically Bitcoin looks to continue to decline. If bitcoin rises above the band of $ 9000-9200, then the technical prospects will be quite good for it and you can expect a movement higher towards $ 10,000.

Vasily Barsukov (Chief dealer Veltrade)