Greetings to all, friends! Let's quickly go over the schedule of bitcoin, which today forced me to go altos for correction.
Today, near the end of the Asian session, Bitcoin rate collapsed from 10125 to 9655 according to the Bitfinex exchange. The collapse occurred literally in 6 minutes and the volume was ~ 2500 BTC. At the moment, the price has slightly recovered and is trading at 9900.
What can I say? A rather strange strait, given the assumptions that I expressed recently in one of my ideas about the possible long position of a major player.
In short, I mean that at an average price of10100-10200 in the interval of August 14-28, a long player could be typed, well, and a support zone was formed in the region of 9800-10100. On September 11, this zone was expectedly protected and, it would seem, everything is going to ensure that the price goes to knock out sellers at 10,700-11,000. But, this has not happened and is not happening to this day. We have:
1) The triangle and the upper boundary of the downward channel still can not be broken.
Just look how clearly the price went in this dynamic zone of resistance, but in the end today it has gone quite aggressively down.
2) At a level near 10400, it is also quite accumulateda large volume, which is now scary, because, why being so close to the goal (removal of sellers) did the interested buyer not do this? Waiting? Maybe. Very strong seller? Not excluded. It is breakdown and consolidation above 10400 that would open the way to 10700-11000.
Accordingly, now a large buyer can wait for the seller to exit and will continue to redeem all sales (as we saw on September 11 and 16). But, this is in an ideal situation.
3) On the chart, we can note MA25 and MA20 (yes,it was MA20 that I was recently advised to use, because it interacts more clearly with the price). And what is interesting - we have already touched MA20, and below it it is undesirable to fix it oh.
On the graph, I depicted MA20 as green, and MA25 as a yellow line.
4) Look at the RSI. On the daily chart, we approached the levels of 37-40, from which the RSI value bounced in the current triangle. On the weekly chart, the RSI value has reached an even more important level - it is the oscillator that has been responding to it since 2016 (!!!).
What am I doing?
As for my current bitcoin position, its average price is 10050.
In the last update, I wrote that withfixing below 9800 I will have to leave the position. Actually, that’s what I’ll do by setting a stop at 9750. Yes, it would be more correct to wait for today's day to close and if it is below 9800 (below the support zone), then we would have to go out, because something is going wrong and the buyer is not protecting .
Yes, there is a certain risk that due to the currentlow liquidity and an empty glass, the stop will be knocked down and the price will go up, but I do not want to get stuck in the position, because I understand that it may be possible to buy bitcoin below (the same 9100-9400).
Fortunately, the trade in viola in recent days has turned out to be very saturated and a catch stop on bitcoin will not hit psychology and afford.
That's all for me. The main intrigue: whether the buyer will defend the current support.
On the chart.