February 27, 2024

TradingView Blog | Bitcoin Watch

TradingView Blog | Bitcoin Watch

Hi all! A new work week begins and I start it with a new idea forbitkion course
Previous ideaworked out pretty well, even if I bought itit cost a little more (8370) than I wanted (press play on the previous idea and get aesthetic pleasure?). I had to adapt to the market and make a decision quickly. Yesterday I already sold a third of what I bought around 8575, which, as always, I told you about.

Overall, this month is one of the best in recent times in terms of predictability of future Bitcoin movements. There were practically no obvious manipulations, which plays into our hands.

1D+1W

As usual, everything listed below is shown on the main idea graph:

1) Came out of a descending wedge at an elevatedvolume (there is still potential) + partially worked out the hidden bullish divergence on the daily RSI and immediately ran into resistance (covering part of the long in this case is not a bad idea);
2) The trend slope is quite steep (orangedotted line) and maintaining a trend in this state is usually quite difficult (my stop for balances at breakeven is significantly lower than the trend line, and if it is knocked down, then with a probability of 70 percent we will go back to the 8000-8200 zone.

For example: the normal / natural angle of inclination of our trend is shown by a white dotted line. 

3) MA200 (on a daily basis) the price likes to test from below twice (before going further down). This happened in September-October 2019 (circled in turquoise circles) and in March-April 2018.

In other words, if MA200 has already been on the day onceacted as resistance and was not broken confidently on impulse and with consolidation (as we have now), then if such a trick is repeated, the price will go much lower in a short time.

4) There is still a certain growth margin on the weekly TF, since MA20 was tested from above + the weekly candle closed with a good shadow from below.

5) On the same weekly TF, you will need to carefully watch the formation of a hidden bearish divergence, which may appear in the next week or two with possible growth.

6) MA50(1W) rose from 7900 to 8000, and MA20 dropped to 8200. Thus, the 8000-8200 zone has become even more relevant for potential support and should not be forgotten about.

World news feeds

Today's week defensive assets openedgrowth (the same gold) against the backdrop of either the shelling of the American embassy in Iraq, or new victims of coronavirus (80 dead, 2,750 infected and the virus continues to spread, but there is no vaccine for it yet).

Naturally, this is to the advantage of Bitcoin, but there has not yet been any overt reaction (as was the case, for example, against the backdrop of the Iranian-American aggravation).

Summary

As a result, Bitcoin still has a certain reservecourse, but the angle of the trend and potential resistance in the form of MA200 casts doubt on whether the upward movement will be strong. At the moment, I see the zone 8800-9000 (levels + MA200) as a positive target. The most positive and almost unrealistic is the 9400 area.

What am I doing?

I closed a third of my long yesterday, and the remaining stops are at breakeven, because there are certain risks of stopping there.

If I didn’t have a position on my hands now, then I would not enter on the current one and would wait for the closing of today's day, looking at the candlestick and seeing if the trend line would break through. Something like that? ‍♂️ 

That's all for me. As always, I tried to explain everything in an informative and accessible language.