March 29, 2024

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Key Metrics

Technical analysis of the bitcoin rate - key metrics

The Bitcoin rate formed its first rising low since September 4 against the backdrop of a bullish engulfing candle. Thiscould launch a new phase of BTC growth.

Bullish engulfing candle

Bitcoin rate (BTC) formed a candle on September 25bullish engulfing, consolidating from a low of $ 10,193 to a high of $ 10,795. Also, the pair formed an increasing low for the first time since the fall on September 4.

Despite the price increase, technical indicatorshave not yet confirmed the uptrend. MACD is growing, but has not yet entered the green zone, and the RSI remains below 50. In addition, the Stochastic Oscillator has not yet formed a bullish crossover.

Technical analysis of the bitcoin rate - key metrics

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On the shorter 6 hour chartthe upward trend has not yet been confirmed either. The price rose only to the 0.618 Fibo level of the correction of the previous decline at $10,783. This level passes directly below the $10,800 area, which previously played the role of support, and now can act as resistance. This may indicate that the current movement is only a correction after a previous decline. In this case, the nearest support will come into play around $10,200.

Technical indicators are starting to give bullish signals. The MACD is growing, the RSI is holding above 50, but the MACD has not yet entered the green zone.

Technical analysis of the bitcoin rate - key metrics

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Short-term schedule

A rise in price on a 2-hour chart promises bitcointhe beginning of the growth phase. The price has made a bullish breakout of the downward resistance line, the MACD is giving bullish signals, the RSI is growing and is not giving signals of bearish divergence.

Two possible scenarios can be assumed:

  • Bullish breakout of the $10,800 area and turn it into support, and then further growth (green color on the chart below)
  • Decline towards $10,400 and then rise above $10,800 (red)

At the time of writing the analysis, the second option seems more likely.

If the $10,400 area fails, it will significantly reduce the chances of a subsequent rally. Absorption of the minimum of $10,138 will confirm that what we have now seen is not the beginning of a new growth phase.

Technical analysis of the bitcoin rate - key metrics

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Wave analysis

The current dynamics of the BTC rate, especially yesterday's rise, indicate the likelihood that the price triggered a bullish impulse move on September 9 (orange in the chart below).

If so, then the market is nowcompleted the formation of the 1st wave and its correction (red), and now began the wave 3. This scenario will become irrelevant if the price falls below the September 23 low at $ 10,136.

Technical analysis of the bitcoin rate - key metrics

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There is a bearish scenario according to whichthe previous rally was part of wave 4, and yesterday's rally was part of the bearish impulse 2 (red). However, the retracement was too short and this analysis does not fit well with longer-term price action. Accordingly, we will not take this probability into account until we see a bearish break below $ 10,136.

Technical analysis of the bitcoin rate - key metrics

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