Tuesday everyone! Issue 218
Yesterday oil failed to break through the $80 per barrel mark the first time. OPEC asit turned out he didn't want to give up so easily andhinted that he would seriously consider a decrease in production at the next meeting in order to support the price tag. However, apart from the cartel, there is no one to support oil so far, because the main oil consumer on the planet is still receiving alarming signals due to anti-COVID protests. In Europe, too, the energy crisis continues and it cannot present serious demand yet. Also, some analysts figured that without the support of the cartel, oil was already worth just under $40 per barrel. Oil has almost zeroed out the entire growth of this year, however, it has so far rebounded from the support of $80. And it may grow a little in the short term if tensions in China subside and OPEC does not refute its rumors. Following oil, gas is not going to lose ground much, which is quietly gradually growing, both in Europe and in America.
Super calm ruble decided all the sameto react to falling oil and climbed above the rate of 61 rubles, however, a sharp weakening of the national currency is unlikely to happen further, because according to yesterday's quotes, Russian oil was already cheaper than the ceiling offered by some European buyers. The dollar all the same began to slowly grow stronger, but the rest of the currencies are weakening relative to the US. Which indicates an increase in nervousness and possibly a short-term upward trend for the dollar if the Fed fails to calm everyone down. In the meantime, one of the representatives yesterday declined to comment on how far the Fed is going to go with raising the rate, saying only that the first cut could be in 2024. It would be better not to say anything at all.
American indices went down quite well yesterday,because the mood of investors was soured due to the Chinese news. Oil also added fuel to the fire, which may hint that problems with inflation have not yet been resolved. Following the dollar, the yield on treasury 10-year notes also gradually began to creep up; it will be completely unpleasant if it can rise much above the level of 3.8% in the near future. Analysts note that China and its zero tolerance for Covid will be in focus for a long time, and may almost be the main topic for recovery in 2023, so if the Chinese authorities suddenly change their minds or suddenly defeat the crown, this could be a powerful driver for the markets. In the meantime, AAPL continued to decline, because the situation with its Chinese production continues to strain. But the quarantines benefited the e-commerce platform PDD, judging by its reporting, because the stock grew by more than 12%, but most importantly, it was able to rise above the important level of $72, which had been resistance all this year, and the year before that had been support. If the stock can gain a foothold above it, then perhaps the wind in its dynamics has finally changed to tailwind.
Wall Street analysts massively downgraded estimatescompanies' profits for the 4th quarter, which may lead to a decrease in optimism. Let me also remind you that almost everyone has already reported for the 3rd quarter and the average profit growth was 2%, which is the slowest pace since the same quarter in 2020. For the current quarter, Wall Street experts predicted the first decline in profits since 2020, although back in the summer the survey showed how confident everyone was in growth and it would be about 9%, now a decline of 2% is predicted. This cannot but affect stock quotes, which can lay down such estimates now and react negatively if the reality turns out to be even worse, but already next year.
In the crypt, the mood is also so-so, even though Bitcoin andis consolidating at its new level of normality in the $16k region, bankruptcies continue in the industry after the fall of the FTX exchange. So shares directly related to the blockchain and crypto COIN and RIOT yesterday gave -4%. More importantly, RIOT is near its local low, and COIN is at its all-time low, and it looks like they can easily update these lows. Because despite the fact that COIN fell by 89% from its ATH and RIOT by 95%, they still have room to fall, like bitcoin, so be careful with such stories.
Our market has moved to a more confident correction and will probably continue to fall gradually if oil does not show a sharp recovery, because the correction in our market is already ripe.
The sun hasn't been seen for a long time, but I'm sure it's out there somewhere and shines on us all! Sports Tuesday and cool deals! PIS Yo!
