markets report 1/4/22

April 1st everyone!

The Russian market continues to grow abnormally, RTS has surpassed the psychological level of 1000points.Yesterday's stars were OZON and HH, which soared 33% and 44% respectively. Russian blue chips have grown up, showing a good 2-digit growth, and this is against the background of allowed shorts for professional participants, the absence of any positive in negotiations with Ukraine, a negative external background and a general refusal of unfriendly fears to pay for our still friendly gas in rubles.

It looks like everyone is being luredto the market, then to take it out well. But we must not forget that trading is still artificial in addition to the usual irrationality of the market, which is inherent in it. Because commodity exporters grew especially well yesterday against the backdrop of falling oil prices. And Gazprom is specifically growing in anticipation that buyers today will switch to paying for gas in rubles, but at the same time it is considering the possibility of a complete halt in gas supplies to unfriendly countries, and this has not put any pressure on the share price. Moreover, analysts say that there are no fundamental factors for growth. But the market is still growing, and this is a fact that is better to accept, otherwise disputes with obvious things in the market are costly. Therefore, there is such a trading rule “trade only what the market gives” even if its movement does not lend itself to any logic. After all, the main goal in the market is to earn a profit, and not just to understand the logic.

Tinkoff is considering transferring its shares fromLandona to the Moscow Stock Exchange. Let me remind you that the initial public offering of shares of a top bank was on London, and GDRs of London shares were placed on the Moscow exchange. But life has turned out in such a way that, to put it mildly, not everyone likes Russian shares very much and Tinkoff fell under a general shambles; trading in shares was stopped on March 2 at $3 per share, because no one needs them there and is unlikely to need them. On the Moscow stock exchange, Tinkoff closed yesterday as if nothing had happened at a price of p3318, or almost $40 dollars, and such a tasty arbitrage cannot be closed, if it were possible it would not have formed.

Oil continued to fall, because in addition to American sales from reserves, OPEC, instead of the planned increase by 400k, increased it by 432k, this was too much for the market to say and oil went further down.

American indices yesterday very synchronouslyfell by -1.5%, ending the quarter in the red, and for SnP this quarter turned out to be the worst quarter since the start of the pandemic. Treasury treasury yields are on the rise, which makes investors angst because the Fed might wake up and raise the adult rate. Short yields grew stronger than long-term ones, that is, the spread fell to a new low, and the banking sector strongly dislikes this, which sank by more than 4%. AMD dropped 8% and dragged the rest of the semiconductors with it, because Barclays lowered its target from $148 to $118, and now its UPside is an unimpressive 8%.

Strategists from UBS and GS do not see much potentialSnP500 growth this year, but they see quite a significant DOWNside by 20% from current levels towards 3600 points. Strategists also point out that shrinking the Fed's balance sheet or shutting down a printing press has historically driven US stocks down. The decision to reduce the balance of the Fed plans to announce at the next meeting in May.

BIDU sank 7.5% yesterday on delisting rumorsfrom American markets, and China as a whole is extending anti-COVID restrictions despite the slowdown in the economy. In Shanghai, by the way, a giant traffic jam was formed from tankers for loading / unloading.

Bitcoin, and after it all cryptocurrencies, decided to keep up with the classical markets and played back all the growth of the last week.

Good luck everyone and have a great weekend! PIS Yo!