The development of the situation with the pandemic remains the most important factor of uncertainty for the Russian and world economics.
One of the main risks is increased inflation,associated with a significant excess of demand over supply and a change in the structure of demand, a poor harvest and a record rise in energy prices in the world. Higher inflation may persist longer than previously expected.
Other factors of instability are a possible sharp revaluation of the value of financial assets, an increase in global risks due to investments in digital currencies.
In the orange zone, there is already vulnerability associated with an increase in the debt burden of the population and the risks of retail lending.
We also refer to the climate problem as the orange zone. Transient risks will manifest themselves in a drop in revenues, an increase in operating and capital expenditures of energy-intensive companies
Foreign investors are still one of the most active participants in the Russian financial market.
Mass investments of citizens in securities will beincrease the dependence of their financial position on fluctuations in the stock market. The active participation of private investors with similar strategies can increase market volatility
Risks from Russians' investments in digital currencies are growing
The growth of rates in the economy has not yet been accompanied bydecrease in net interest income of the banking sector. However, in the future, the interest rate risk may be realized in a larger volume due to the faster revaluation of liabilities.
New channels of infection in the Russian financialmarket emerge due to the development of ecosystems by banks through the expansion of non-core businesses and partnerships with technology companies. The uncontrolled development of ecosystems increases the risks of forced support of this business for such banks.
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