Market review for October 28, 2019
Last week for the US stock market was to some extent historical, since the top was brokenan uptrend formed in the fourth week of July 2019. I would like to note that this is also a historical maximum, which occurs regularly on the SP500 index, as well as on other US stock indices.
Analysis of futures for SP500, NASDAQ 100 andDow Jones 30 on the hourly timeframe signals the continuation of the uptrend, which at the moment, nothing is holding back and a number of stock indices show a positive trend. Reinforcement in the form of a falling delta from T-BOND strengthens the growth of stock indices.
October 30 will be an announcement of the interest rateUSA, which currently stands at 2%. Analysts forecast a decrease of 25 basis points to 1.75%, the result of a reduction in the rate will usually be a decrease in treasury bonds, as well as an increase in the stock market as a whole. Today, the probability of a decline in the range of 1.5% -1.75% is 93%.
Estimated interest rate based on 30 dailyUS bonds is 1.61%, which is within the range of 1.75% -1.5%. The dynamics of changes in interest rates, as well as other probabilities of changes are presented below.
In terms of technical analysis, the SP500 indexon Friday, October 25, he overcame the weekly peak, which was formed on Tuesday, and is also gradually approaching the zone of monthly resistance calculated by the method of volatility analysis.
Daily volatility resistance zone - 3031 .6
Daily volatility support zone - 3015.6
Weekly volatility resistance zone - 3044.9
Weekly volatility support zone - 2994.8
Monthly volatility resistance zone - 3042.5
Monthly volatility support zone - 2921.4
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