May 25, 2022

It is difficult to seriously consider bearish scenarios - technical analysis of May 2, 2022

What you need to know about the BTC price chart here and now.

Monthly schedule


The month is over and April closed far from ideal.

But first, I suggest zooming out andremind yourself that in the higher timeframes, bitcoin is still in an “endless bull market”: an upward channel with successive higher highs and higher lows. However, each breakout of the middle of the channel (dashed line) in the past sent the price to its upper or lower border - until the price reversed lower during the last breakout. Since then, the market has been trading more horizontally, expecting a clearer direction.

April candle (historically, April is considered"bullish" month) closed almost at a monthly low: at the end of the month, the bulls could not defend or win back almost anything. In addition, it completely absorbed the movement of the rising candles of February and March.

Still, in my opinion, this should be treated withknown mistrust: the monthly chart is hard to use for constructive trading and the development of the situation takes forever. Although it must be admitted that the April candle looks unfavorable.

Weekly schedule


The weekly chart expresses the uncertainty of the market,being at the support level. The key support of $34.4-37.7 thousand is still holding and this is an important area. The nearest key resistance, closing above which could become decisive, is at $39.6 thousand.

Daily chart


As of today, bitcoin has reacted by rebounding to the lowerupstream border. Regardless of the pattern, this sloping support is now a key level. If it holds, it will mean another big low and the price will move towards the upper border of the channel. If not, the price will go looking for new lows.

This is exactly the area where upside support traders are looking for options to buy.


I find it hard to seriously consider bearishScenarios where bitcoin ramps up an ever longer bullish divergence, especially on the daily chart. The chart has formed another confirmed local divergence with the RSI, while the price trajectory is forming a falling wedge.

This usually means a bounce and a breakout at least to the top of the pattern.

That being said, I will be watching for the likely formation of a hidden bearish divergence.


Bollinger Bands are quite narrow, a sign of "spring compression" before volatility picks up.

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