Investors are in no hurry to restore long positions in cryptocurrency, fearing new "surprises"

The last week of May brought little consolation to thosecryptocurrency traders, whose actions earlier this year helped push price records in April. According to Glassnode, the cumulative sales at a loss of BTC were $ 14.2 billion, including $ 4.53 billion on the day of the panic on May 19, but the purchase price of another 24% of the coins is above current values.

After the Bitcoin price dropped by 25% a week earlier(from $46,000 to $35,000, at the moment up to $30,000) quotes were able to win back only half, and by the end of the week, 50% of this rebound was lost after an unsuccessful test of the 200-daymoving average and psychological level of $ 40,000.

Network data suggests a decline in the number of coinssent to exchange balance sheets, to multi-month lows, which eliminates the previous supply overhang. At the same time, institutions that bought out the market failure and investors with free capital are in no hurry to restore long positions, fearing new “surprises” from regulators.

Increased pressure on the market

Last week, Chinese authorities beganreshape the “rules of the game” in relations with miners (so far they have affected only those operating in Inner Mongolia) and cryptocurrency firms (Huobi, Bybit, OKEx have to one degree or another limited interaction with Chinese citizens).

In the United States, they announced the need to report crypto exchanges on customer transactions in excess of $ 10,000 from 2023.

Criticism of Bitcoin as unusable continuedto preserve the capital of the tool, the extraction of which is harmful to the environment. The creation of a mining council by Elon Musk was not specific, caused a mixed reaction from the community and was unable to neutralize the consequences of the “regulatory storm.” 

Most are waiting for the current uncertainty to be lifted.

Potential growth factors

Last week, billionaires Ray Dalio and Karl Icahn voiced compliments to Bitcoin. The latter is ready to invest $ 1-1.5 billion when he sees favorable buying opportunities.

Stablecoin capitalization has set new records– since the sales in May, it has increased by $24 billion. The SSR indicator, which characterizes the ratio of the supply of stable coins to the supply of BTC, has dropped to a record low, which indicates the presence of “fuel” for future growth. The trigger could be the adoption of next year's US budget, which calls for $6 trillion in spending, while Biden's tax hikes are met with resistance. But this is not a matter of the next few days.

So far, the financial market has not given any reason to“mantras” still work The Fed believes inflation is temporary and ignores data that suggests otherwise. Only the June labor market report, which will reflect the elimination of generous federal unemployment benefits in half the states, can awaken investors.

Summary

The technical picture for bitcoin is still emergingnot in favor of buyers. Next week, the rate of the first cryptocurrency may complete the formation of a triangle, the exit from which will predetermine the further vector of price movement.

So far, there is more chance of seeing $ 30,000 in the first decade of June, rather than $ 42,000. Attempts to go lower may force the same Ikan to take advantage of the situation.

Altcoins, after a more confident rebound compared to BTC, can roll back just as dynamically. Ethereum quotes may return to $2200 – $2400.