November 27, 2022

In anticipation of a decisive close - technical analysis of January 14, 2022

Back to $42,000. Did we expect anything else? This is a key level on the weekly chart that the bulls it's really important to protect the weekend before the upcoming close of the week.

Weekly schedule

At the moment we have almosta perfect doji with up and down wicks and almost equal weekly open and close prices. I would very much like the bulls to show some initiative and, by the results of the week, at least keep this level. In general, the higher the close, the better.

Often in situations like the present one,see a "test dump" when the bears push the price down to test the market's reaction. And if they have enough confidence, then the pending orders in this area are now filled, which theoretically weakens the protection of the level from the purchase side. It will be an interesting time.

The bulls need to close the week above $42K, which may not be such an easy task. And this will only be the beginning. The real recovery level for bulls is still $53k.

TD Sequential indicator potentially readycount a rare downward movement candle on the weekly timeframe 9, which is considered to be a strong buy signal. In my experience, taking this factor as a direct signal is more likely to lead to failure than not. However, in case of a favorable weekly close, this factor can be added to the list of coincidences.

Daily chart

MACD doesn't count for me either.indicators of the first choice, however, I sometimes glance at it in search of additional confirmation. As you can see, the MACD can see bullish divergence in both the moving averages (MA) and the indicator's histogram, plus the potential for a potential bullish MA crossover. But a much stronger signal of a potential reversal would be a break of the blue downtrend line.

The price bounced off the lower border of the bandsBollinger, which was an almost inevitable necessity for the formation of the next movement. The question is in the direction of this next movement. Now the price needs to cross the middle line of the indicator, which is a very logical resistance and coincides with the horizontal levels of lower timeframes - about $45.6 thousand. This is the next area of ​​interest that I am watching.

4-hour chart

These are important levels that can be drawn onlower timeframes. As you can see, the price tested the low of the range at $42k once again, and for those who are expecting a bounce, this (was) a fairly standard moment to go long.


I want to slightly update the idea that I shared at the end of last week.

The next phase of the market is likely to be challenging for altcoins. Nothing can be said for sure, but this seems to me the most likely scenario, and I prefer to stick to the best odds.

If BTC gets a strong upward momentum (with a likely short squeeze), then the Bitcoin Dominance Index will rise and the alts will lose value against BTC, treading water against USD.

If BTC moves lower, bitcoin dominancerises and alts will fall against both BTC and USD. This is the worst possible scenario: this is how alt buyers suffer losses in both Satoshi and USD.

Sideways movement in bitcoin is generally favorable for alts, but there is a caveat: this applies to sideways consolidation in bitcoin after ascending impulse. When fear reigns in the market and bitcoin is in lateral consolidation after a decline, people tend to be too scared to buy altcoins.

"Technical" levels on the index chartdominance should not be taken too seriously as there are no real orders to create support or resistance for the price. But if you try to draw these levels, then the index has clearly slowed down at the “support”, and in this situation it is logical to expect a rebound.

I don't want this to sound like a call to foldpositions in altos regardless of the idea. I'm just pointing out a scenario that I think is likely: it might be useful for someone to re-evaluate and refine their plan.

Well, if you are a long-term investor, then this does not change anything for you, as usual.

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