ICB Fund analyst: "Until Wednesday, we can expect a moderate recovery of the bitcoin rate to local heights"

Bitcoin is waiting for a second assault on the $50 000 level.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during the symposiumin Jackson Hole left the door ajar on the possibility of announcing a postponement of the winding down of the asset repurchase program from the September meeting to October-November. Unlike the hawkish comments of his colleagues, he limited himself to the phrase about the potential start of normalization of monetary policy this year, but did not give specifics . In other words, Powell made it clear that the monetary authorities are ready to end the stimulus, but we need to seeconfirmation in the data. This week, on Friday, a key report on the labor market will be released; before that, forecasts for the level of jobs (650 thousand) and the unemployment rate (5.3%) will be clarified by the report on employment in the private sector from ADP on Wednesday.

Friday data will be crucialfor the prospects of the cryptocurrency market. If the delta strain has not greatly affected the plans of American companies to hire staff, investors will begin to prepare for the fact that at the September meeting of the Fed will announce the beginning of the shutdown of the printing press in November-December. This could cause a cooling of the current optimism in all global financial markets and deprive bitcoin of the opportunity to gain a foothold above $ 50,000 with a promising breakdown of the lows recorded before Jackson Hole.

If the actual data turns out to be noticeably worseforecasts, there will be an option to postpone the start of policy normalization to next year. In this case, the bears will give up $50,000 without a fight, the bulls will be able to quickly bring the rate to $57,500, and then aim for the historical maximum. But we need to move step by step. For BTC, the target is currently $50,000 – 50 400, for ETH – $3350. 

Ethereum blockchain split news due tothe use of an unknown bug in the Geth client did not lead to coin sales, although they cast a shadow on the prospects of switching to Proof-of-Stake. Miners switched to the current version of the software, the incident was eliminated. The hype in DeFi and NFT threw fees to May values, thanks to the mechanics of EIP-1559, with such a high network load, inflation in Ethereum was lower than in the Bitcoin network. The hashrate of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization returned to the values ​​before the repression of the Chinese authorities. In general, everything is pretty good, if not for this fork.

Still looks better than BTC and ETHCardano. In anticipation of the Alonzo hardfork in September, which will add smart contracts, an ERC-20 token converter will be tested on the testnet. Ethereum now accounts for $ 114.4 billion in TVL out of a total of $ 155.3 billion (according to DeFiLlama). Appearances in the Cardano space could reduce that proportion.

test: Aaron Chomsky, head of the investment department of ICB Fund, photo: Getty Images