September 19, 2021

ICB Fund analyst: "Technically, now nothing prevents the rollback of Bitcoin with the final breakdown of $ 30,000"

ICB Fund analyst: "Technically, now nothing prevents the rollback of Bitcoin with the final breakdown of $ 30,000"

Past Monday can be remembered not onlya surge in volatility (at the moment, bitcoin's growth was 14.6%, and on some derivatives platforms due to sparseness - by a more significant amount), but also by the nature of the incoming news. Many traders may have fallen into a stupor and resentment, feeling like a victim of market manipulation, which may be used by the financial authorities as an argument to continue the campaign to eliminate this "Wild West". On the other hand, these are excellent opportunities for earning money, and in this regard cryptocurrencies are a blessing asset. In this vein, the head of the Man Group hedge fund Luke Ellis spoke, who unflatteringly compared what was happening with tulip mania.

From lyrics to deeds

A catalyst for explosive growth on Monday morningspeculation began about Amazon's readiness to add support for payments in bitcoin and a number of other digital assets by the end of the year. By the end of the day, the online retailer denied these facts (the company is more likely testing its own payment solution), but they provoked the liquidation of short positions for almost $ 900 million, according to Bybt data - bitcoin spurted to $ 39,000 on this impulse.

In the future, similar manipulations, but already inOn a smaller scale, news from Bloomberg about the initiation of an investigation into Tether's management (with possible prosecution) for the alleged bank fraud was generated. Given the role of USDT in the market and the scenario of their panic conversion to Bitcoin (many are now left idle, based on the Stablecoin Supply Ratio metric), the rally could continue, but did not continue. Tether accused the agency that spread the message of manipulation.

But maybe speculation appeared for a reason? Wait and see. This will be extremely interesting and may become a significant driver of the market and a reason for re-evaluating the situation as a whole.

Further movement vector

Banking Committee Hearings To Be Held TodayUS Senate on the topic of cryptocurrencies, in traditional markets, we should expect a decrease in volatility ahead of the Fed meeting. The same should be expected in the cryptocurrency market. Above $ 40,000 is unlikely to go anytime soon. Against - refutation of Tether, technical factors, the upcoming expiration on Friday, where the greatest open interest has accumulated just at this level.

The current movement is not confirmed by the strengtheningon-chain activity, as observed by analysts at Glassnode. All of this is more reminiscent of a skillful lesson for gape in shorts from market makers. Technically, a rebound within the framework of consolidation took place since May. Now nothing prevents the resumption of the downward dynamics with the final breakdown of $ 30,000. The nature of trading in the coming days will show how optimists agree with this scenario.

text: Aaron Chomsky, Head of Investment Department, ICB Fund