An interesting hypothesis has recently appeared on the price that bitcoin can reach by the end of 2019. He was posted on Twitter by the PlanB trader, according to which BTC could close the year at $ 10,000.
"Call me crazy, but it won’t surprise me,if BTC closes 2019 at around $ 10 thousand + ... such opportunities (Bitcoin below the value of the S2F model 6 months before halving) are rare. ”
This hypothesis is based on a halving cycle. Six months later, the third such event will occur, the first two took place in 2012 and 2016. PlanB showed a graph comparing the price of bitcoin in US dollars (red dots) with the S2F model.
According to this “supply to inflow” model, the deficitdirectly determines the cost. Bitcoin's market capitalization after 2020 halving is expected to be approximately $ 1 trillion, which corresponds to a BTC price of $ 55,000.
Call me crazy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if BTC closes 2019 at $ 10k + .. opportunities like this (#bitcoin below S2F model value, 6 months before the halving) are rare. pic.twitter.com/ADwqixd9EF
- PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) November 25, 2019
Nobody knows what the actual number will be,but the superposition of the price curve on the S2F curve shows a possible correlation in which, after two previous halvings, the price follows the changes in the S2F curve.
According to this correlation, at the end of 2019, the price of BTC should be about $ 10,000. According to a PDC Academy Trading trader, this forecast in various forms was presented by several people.
Although it is worth noting that there is no guarantee that what happened in the past will happen again.
“To ensure growth, it is imperative thatthe driving forces of the market were stocked with cryptocurrency for subsequent impulsive movements. Moreover, at the time of halving there will be no movement, it is more likely that such a movement will occur in the spring, as it was this year ...
If any price movement occurs, it will be dictated only by the retail FOMO, and, in my opinion, will be quickly absorbed so that institutions can make a profit ...
It’s enough to consider the current moment: an excellent liquidation and an excellent opportunity for accumulation, and this requires additional liquidity to make a profit. ”