Recently, an interesting hypothesis has emerged regarding the price that Bitcoin could reach by the end of 2019. He wasposted on Twitter by the PlanB trader, according to which BTC could close the year at $ 10,000.
"Call me crazy, but it won't surprise meif BTC closes 2019 at $10k+… Opportunities like this (Bitcoin below the S2F model value 6 months before the halving) are rare.”
This hypothesis is based on a halving cycle. Six months later, the third such event will occur, the first two took place in 2012 and 2016. PlanB showed a graph comparing the price of bitcoin in US dollars (red dots) with the S2F model.
According to this “supply to inflow” model, the deficitdirectly determines the cost. Bitcoin's market capitalization after 2020 halving is expected to be approximately $ 1 trillion, which corresponds to a BTC price of $ 55,000.
Call me crazy, but it wouldn't surprise meif BTC closes 2019 at $10k+ .. opportunities like this (#bitcoin below S2F model value, 6 months before the halving) are rare. pic.twitter.com/ADwqixd9EF
- PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) November 25, 2019
Nobody knows what the actual number will be,but the superposition of the price curve on the S2F curve shows a possible correlation in which, after two previous halvings, the price follows the changes in the S2F curve.
According to this correlation, at the end of 2019, the price of BTC should be about $ 10,000. According to a PDC Academy Trading trader, this forecast in various forms was presented by several people.
Although it is worth noting that there is no guarantee that what happened in the past will happen again.
“To ensure growth, it is essential thatMarket movers stocked up on cryptocurrency for subsequent impulsive moves. At the same time, there will be no movement at the time of halving; it is more likely that such a movement will occur in the spring, as it happened this year…
If there is any price movement, it will be driven by retail FOMO alone, and in my opinion will be quickly absorbed so that institutions can profit…
It’s enough to consider the current moment: an excellent liquidation and an excellent opportunity for accumulation, and this requires additional liquidity to make a profit. ”