Industry media and social networks abound with forecasts of the prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Some experts rely for fundamental analysis, others for technical factors or market sentiment.
Bitcoin maximalists are usually confident in cloudlessmarket prospects, and supporters of government regulation, stock markets, banks and other "traditional values" often make downward forecasts, or even predict the collapse of the entire industry.
It is not surprising that the forecasts are radically different from each other, because how many people - so many opinions. But how to navigate this endless stream of predictions and whom to believe?
We offer our readers an overview of the most interesting bitcoin price forecasts from well-known market experts.
The table below provides a brief justification for the forecasts listed in this material:
As it turned out, most experts rely onto fundamental factors. To the most important, they include such characteristics of bitcoin as deficiency, relatively low transaction costs and an acceptable payment rate.
Also, analysts often refer to various external levers. However, Bitcoin is unlikely to be affected by macroeconomic factors to the same extent as traditional assets.
For example, the US stock market may sensitivelyrespond to the slightest changes in the Fed rate and other changes in monetary policy. Bitcoin, by contrast, is not controlled by governments and central banks, therefore, the influence of these institutions on its price can only be indirect.
Bitcoin optimists: from $ 10,000 to $ 1,000,000
Let's start the review with the most optimistic bitcoin enthusiasts. Perhaps the creator of McAfee Security antivirus made the most extravagant forecast more than two years ago. John McAfee. He promised to "eat his penis on the air," if by the end of 2020 BTC will not cost $ 500 thousand.
A few months later, McAfee sharply raised rates, setting a target mark of $ 1 million. In October of this year, the entrepreneur finally explained his confidence in such a bold forecast:
“We admit the obvious - there are only 21 million bitcoins. Seven of which are forever lost, and if Satoshi is dead, add a few more to them. ”
He is sure that the first cryptocurrency will beaccounting for 5% of global financial transactions, and even more. At the same time, based on the available number of coins, bitcoin will cost $ 10 million, says McAfee. We will check at the end of 2020.
$ 500,000 - $ 1,000,000
Very promising prospects are drawn by the former CEO of the oldest Chinese BTCC crypto exchange Bobby Lee. Recently, he expressed confidence that by 2028 the price of bitcoin will reach $ 500 thousand.
Lee compares the first cryptocurrency with gold,whose market is about $ 8 trillion. According to him, within 9 years, the price of BTC will exceed $ 500,000, as a result, bitcoin will surpass the gold market in terms of capitalization.
However, Lee is sure that the growth of bitcoin will not stop there.
“Given the global scale of today's print of money, the price of BTC is likely to overcome the $ 1 million mark.”, - the expert emphasized.
Besides the macroeconomic component, Bobby Leesubstantiates its forecast with the deflationary nature of bitcoin. So, BTC becomes even more scarce after each halving, which reduces emissions and, consequently, inflation.
“Bitcoin was designed to besuper valuable over time, ”Lee shares his thoughts. - By 2020, the daily volume of emissions will be only about ~ 255 BTC, annual inflation will be less than 0.5%. Deficit than gold! ”
Head of leading crypto wallet providerBlockchain Peter Smith in April 2017 made a forecast that Bitcoin could reach the price of $ 500,000 by 2030. It is noteworthy that at that time BTC was trading around $ 1200.
According to Smith, the main drivers of digital gold price growth in the coming years will be:
- Cross-border payments, the share of bitcoin in which will grow rapidly.
- Uncertainty in the global economyincreasing interest in liquid, easy to use and transport alternative assets.
- Mobile distributionthanks to which each smartphone owner will have a “bank in his pocket”.
Also, the head of Blockchain is confident that in 2030 the market capitalization of Bitcoin will be $ 10 trillion (the product of the number of BTC users by the average cost of the coins they hold).
The Bitcoin price forecast for 2030 is calculated as the quotient of the projected market capitalization of “digital gold” and the constant supply of cryptocurrency mined ($ 10 trillion: $ 20 million = $ 500,000).
The venture investor and early follower of Bitcoin are also extremely optimistic. Tim Draper.
In his view, digital gold will reach $ 250,000 in the first quarter of 2023. However, earlier he suggested that this mark will be reached already in 2022.
Draper sincerely convinced that Bitcoin isa protective asset during periods of turbulence in traditional markets. The investor is also sure that within five years BTC will supplant fiat currencies. According to him, every year cryptocurrency will become a more convenient tool for payments and investments, due to the high speed of transactions and low fees.
Trader and cryptanalyst Josh rager came to the conclusion that the trajectory of the Bitcoin price movement is in many respects similar to that observed in 2015.
In April of this year, the Ranger hypothesizedthat the accumulation phase will end in July. In his opinion, to start a bull rally, the price needs to break through resistance in the form of a 100-week moving average (MA).
However, shortly after his assumption, Bitcoin began to grow steadily, and already in June the price of the asset reached an annual maximum of $ 13,880 (Bitstamp exchange).
Thus, the accumulation phase ended much earlier, but the take-off did not last long - at the end of June a rapid fall began with periodic “dead cat jumps”.
The weekly chart shows that the MA 100 was indeed broken against the backdrop of a very strong movement supported by volumes:
However, the breakdown occurred in May, that is, somewhat earlier than the forecast. You can also notice that subsequently the price repeatedly tested the MA 100 repeatedly.
In general, the Ranger is confident that the upcoming phase of the bullish cycle of bitcoin will end in 2023 at around $ 150,000.
The next Bitcoin cycle should peak out in July 2023 and could reach a price at $ 150,000 or more per Bitcoin
Cycle Peak Prices:
2011: $ 31
2014: $ 1,177
2017: $ 19,764
2023: ??? ($ 150,000 + projected) pic.twitter.com/ikicZbJRhe
- Josh Rager? (@Josh_Rager) March 31, 2019
The analyst also believes that after 2021, most investors will not be able to purchase more than 1 BTC due to the high price of the first cryptocurrency.
Morgan Creek Digital Head of Digital Asset Management Mark Yusko I’m sure that Bitcoin can easily fly up to $ 50-100 thousand in the next two years.
He bases his belief in the impending BTC rally on Metcalfe’s law.
“If you think about the growth of the network in terms of lawMetcalfe, you may find that the price can easily be between $ 50,000 and $ 100,000 somewhere in 2020 or 2021. This is a fairly wide range, but it seems to me that the main difficulty in predicting the price is that it does not reflect the true value ”- said Yusko.
He also stressed that the new rally will be due to the emergence of a large number of speculators who want to become market participants, and the network effect.
Also in the summer of this year, the head of the American bitcoin exchange Kraken mentioned the $ 100,000 mark. Jess powell. However, he believes that this is far from the limit, and over time the price of BTC will reach a million dollars.
Large German Bank Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB) published a study according to which, in 2020, the price of bitcoin can reach $ 90,000.
The study is based on the ratio of reservesand the growth corresponding to the models of Seyfedin Ammus and the popular analyst Plan B. The financial institution is convinced that bitcoin resembles gold in its characteristics. Moreover, after a halving of 2020, the asset will demonstrate an identical ratio of reserves and growth.
$ 60,000 - $ 100,000
ThinkMarkets Online Broker Analyst Naim Aslam sure that during the next bull rally the priceBitcoin will conquer new heights in the range of $ 60,000 - $ 100,000. He is convinced that in the less distant future, the important price lines for BTC are $ 20,000 and $ 50,000.
The expert believes that the main drivers of growthBitcoin is the involvement of institutional investors, the US-China trade war, as well as the uncertainty in the stock market and the risks of a new military conflict in the Middle East.
$ 50,000 - $ 100,000
A slightly more conservative forecast from the legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt. He is confident that Bitcoin is able to reach $ 50,000, and in the long term - $ 100,000.
However, before such an impressive growth, digital gold has to survive a fall to the level of $ 5500 and, possibly, even to $ 3905. Moreover, the first goal can be achieved in July next year.
According to Brandt, there is still too much unjustified optimism around Bitcoin:
“First, the bulls must be completely exterminated. When there are no bulls on Twitter, then we will get a good buy signal. ”
Being a supporter of technical analysis, the expert is confident that Bitcoin is currently entering the fourth phase of parabolic growth, which will lead the asset to the level of $ 100,000.
“No other market in my 45 years of trading looked like this on a logarithmic chart. Bitcoin is a market unlike any other. ”- emphasized Brandt.
In April of this year, the head of the largest crypto derivative exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes expressed confidence that within 2-5 years the price of bitcoin will reach $ 50,000.
According to him, the government in the next five yearswill systematically "kill" financial privacy, trying to control a variety of areas. At the same time, cryptocurrencies will become the “last bastion” of financial confidentiality. Therefore, the demand for digital currencies will grow.
Co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom lee known in the crypto community largely due to its forecasts. His optimistic assumptions about the future price of bitcoin cause a considerable resonance among the participants of the crypto industry.
For example, in August, Lee expressed the opinion that byBy the end of this year, the price of BTC could reach $ 20,000. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), which reduces the rate and thus weaken the dollar, will help digital gold grow.
“Bitcoin strengthens its position as amacro risk hedging tool. Lower rates increase liquidity, this leads to the fact that money is sent to all risky assets, as well as to hedging. In turn, this has a positive effect on bitcoin. ”- said the co-founder of Fundstrat.
Another important factor in market growth, Lee is convinced, istrade tensions between the US and China. The expert is confident that over time, Bitcoin becomes a hedge of global risks, increasingly demonstrating a correlation with protective assets like gold and bonds and negative - with the stock market.
Note that earlier Lee’s forecasts were much lessrestrained. For example, in June, an analyst said that after overcoming the $ 10,000 level, the FOMO-driven bitcoin price will reach $ 40,000 within a few months.
~ $ 16,000
Founder of Standpoint Research Ronnie Moas came to the conclusion that the annual inflation of bitcoin is lower than that of currencies of more than 70 countries of the world, including the USA.
According to him, at present, the inflation of the leading cryptocurrency is 4% per year, and after halving in May 2020 it will be reduced to 2%. This will make Bitcoin an even better way to save value.
Moas added that if the US stock market could double in 5-7 years, then the price of bitcoin will double in the next 5-7 months.
The forecast was made on November 18, when BTC was trading around $ 8,200. Consequently, Moas expects that in March-May 2020, the price of bitcoin will be slightly higher than $ 16,000.
Head of Galaxy Digital Crypto Bank Mike Novograts notes that in recent months the industry is experiencing a shortage of fundamentally significant events that can push the market up.
In October, the investor expressed confidence that Bitcoin will return to the psychological mark of $ 10,000. However, before this, the first cryptocurrency will push away from support at $ 6500.
Like many experts, Novograts considers global instability the main factor in the growth of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies:
“With the RMB above 7, the currency war, instability in Hong Kong and the start of capital flight, the BTC rally can really continue.”
Note that partly the forecast of Novogratz has already come true - at the end of November the price really reached the local bottom just above the $ 6500 mark and at the time of writing is being traded in the region of $ 7300.
Bitcoin skeptics: from $ 6,000 to zero
Financial expert and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff In October, it said that the technical picture on BTC looks awful. Seeing the “Bear flag” pattern on the chart, he suggested that the price of bitcoin would drop to $ 6,000.
Then he noticed signs of the formation of the figure “Head and shoulders” with a target at around $ 2000. The WhalePanda trader immediately offered the Bitcoin skeptic to open a short position with a 100x leverage on BitMEX.
Earlier, Peter Schiff claimed that digital gold failed a defensive asset test.
It may seem strange, but a well-known trader in the community Tone Weiss does not exclude that soon Bitcoin will reach $ 4000. However, according to him, this mark will serve as an excellent signal for large purchases.
“When Bitcoin reaches the bottom above or below the $ 4,000 mark or on it, I will go all-in and sell everything I can [to buy]”- Weiss promised.
As a trader, Weiss often uses technical factors, but fundamental analysis is not alien to him.
World-famous forecaster of global crises Nuriel Roubini believes that the value of bitcoin tends to zero, as does Ethereum.
“Crypto and all these shitcoins are the biggest mistakeof our era. Solving problems not covered by people’s banking services is, in fact, a disguised intention to take money. Neither decentralization, nor financial security, nor deficit, nor privacy. All this is nothing but the tales of chronically ill simpletons who invest in shitcoins. ”“- Roubini said during a discussion with the head of BitMEX Arthur Hayes.
You can discuss negative forecasts andcriticism of bitcoin, however, does it make sense? Bitcoin obituaries have appeared in various media since the first years of the cryptocurrency's existence. According to the Bitcoin Obituaries website, to date, Bitcoin has "died" 378 times.
Below is a kind of rating of forecast prices from bitcoin experts:
However, it should be noted that all of thesegoals differ in forecasting horizon. In addition, many analysts - Bobby Lee, Peter Brandt, Naim Aslam - do not accurately indicate the future value of BTC, but only a range that can be quite wide (this chart shows prices that correspond to the lower limits of the ranges).
It is difficult to imagine an asset for which forecastswould be so different. Bitcoin is truly unique, and it's not so easy to predict its price, especially if you listen to the opinion of each expert.
Prediction is complicated by weak correlationBitcoin with traditional assets, the inconsistency of the influence of macroeconomic factors and a poorly developed fundamental analysis methodology. In addition, the market value of BTC may suddenly fall or rise by more than $ 1000 over the course of a day, putting an end to most short-term forecasts.
Nevertheless, many experts believe that withOver time, the volatility of the cryptocurrency will decrease, and its liquidity will increase. This will make the market more predictable and attractive for institutional investors who are willing to invest really big money in bitcoin.