April 18, 2024

Economic Digest 10/27/2019

The dollar/ruble pair grew slightly last week and closed at 63.8525. Medium term couple, rathertotal, completed wave C of wave 2 finaldiagonal triangle with 86, which is flat (marking here), and is already in wave 3. Long-term marking options are here. The net long speculative position in ruble futures fell by 2,000, from 27,000 to 25,000.  The RTS Index rose, updated its maximum for the year and closed at 1421.2 (long-term marking here, medium-term marking here). It turned out that foreign investment in Russian stocks has increased by 58% since the introduction of sanctions. The Russian government bond index (RGBI-tr) set a new all-time high (554.3) and closed at 554.02. Listen to more details in “recaps of the week”.

World markets

Oilimplemented the “inverted head andshoulders,” and went into correction. When this correction ends (has ended) will depend on where exactly the KDT ended, which was the last wave in the movement from 42.05 (marking here), there are still options (see here). At the moment, flat (more details here) is no longer the most likely option; it is not yet possible to single out one. The net volume of long speculative positions last week increased by 9,300, from 356,900 to 366,200. The number of operating towers in the US fell from 713 to 696. The week closed WTI - 56.63, Brent - 62.03. At the end of Friday, the number of bulls in the market was 64%.

Euro / dollar(EUR/USD) completed wave C of a flat correction withMarch 2015 (the marking can be viewed here, the dollar index – here), respectively, wave X in the long-term marking, since the level of 1.21545 was broken (previously this signal was given by the dollar index, breaking the corresponding level), and is moving towards parity. Now the pair is in the fifth wave of this movement, which is KDT. Weekly close: 1.10795. At the end of Wednesday, the number of bulls in the market was 35%.

Futures on the S&P indexWhat is the latest wave of growth, sayIt’s still difficult, most likely this is part of a corrective pattern (triangle or flat), and it’s apparently not finished yet, so I expect the upward movement to continue in the near future. Closing the week - 3020.25. At the end of Wednesday, the number of bulls in the market was 69%.

Goldis in wave B in a circle in the long-termmarkings. The metal broke through 1366.08, therefore its wave B (or X) was a triangle, and it is already moving in wave C (medium-term markings here). Closing the week - 1504.3. At the end of Wednesday, the number of bulls in the market was 45%.

Bitcoin, most likely completed wave 4 of the impulse from the December lows, so most likely the most popular cryptocurrency began to rise in the fifth wave, which will complete it.

RUH666 (ancestor of Rüchism)