April 23, 2024

Economic digest 09/22/2019

The dollar/ruble pair fell last week and closed at 64.01. In the medium term the pair will most likelyfinished wave C of wave 2 of the final diagonaltriangle with 86, which is flat (marking here), and is already in wave 3. Options for long-term markings are here. The net long speculative position in ruble futures fell by 4,300, from 27,900 to 23,600.  The RTS Index rose and closed at 1377.38 (long-term marking here, medium-term marking here). The Russian Government Bond Index (RGBI-tr) set a new all-time high (541.41) and closed at 541.18. Listen to more details in the “results of the week.”

World markets

Oil implemented the “inverted head andshoulders,” and went into correction. When this correction ends (has ended) will depend on where exactly the KDT ended, which was the last wave in the movement from 42.05 (marking here), there are still options (see here). At the moment, flat (more details here) is no longer the most likely option; it is not yet possible to single out one. The net volume of long speculative positions fell by 1,100 last week, from 428,200 to 427,100. The number of operating towers in the US fell from 733 to 719. The week closed WTI - 58.39, Brent - 64.77. At the end of Friday, the number of bulls in the market was 63%.

Euro / dollar(EUR/USD) completed wave C of a flat correction withMarch 2015 (the marking can be viewed here, the dollar index – here), respectively, wave X in the long-term marking, since the level of 1.21545 was broken (previously this signal was given by the dollar index, breaking the corresponding level), and is moving towards parity. Now the pair is either in the second (fourth) wave of this movement (then it will be flat, the probability of this option is again quite low), or already in the third (or fifth) (the working version of the marking is with the second NDT here). Weekly close: 1.1018. At the end of Friday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 19%.

Futures on the S&P indexWhat is the latest wave of growth, sayIt’s still difficult, perhaps this is part of a corrective pattern (triangle or flat). Closing the week - 2989.25. At the end of Friday, the number of bulls in the market was 65%.

Goldis in wave B in a circle in the long-termmarkings. The metal broke through 1366.08, therefore its wave B (or X) was a triangle, and it is already moving in wave C (medium-term markings here). Closing the week - 1516.46. At the end of Friday, the number of bulls in the market stood at 49%.

Bitcoin, most likely, is in wave 4 of the impulse from the December lows, so, most likely, after its end, the most popular cryptocurrency will rise in the fifth wave, which will complete it.

RUH666 (ancestor of Rüchism)