October 25, 2020

Dollar under pressure. Bitcoin down? Buy gold?

In this article, Weltrade provides up-to-date analytics of key financial instruments, as well as forecast for the near future.
The general situation can now be described asglobal consolidation. Last week, the US labor market statistics came out and did not bring any surprises, the figures came out about the same as expected, about 135,000 new jobs, which have long been taken into account in the market. That is why strong fluctuations in trading instruments did not occur.

Traditionally Monday is a calm day, on thissince he does not change his traditions. Everything is in rather narrow ranges, activity remains low, but, nevertheless, it must be admitted that the dollar remains under some pressure. Perhaps this situation is due to the fact that in October the next meeting of the Fed is expected at which the rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points. In principle, the market expectation for this event is estimated at 90%, that is, 90% of the probability that the rate will be reduced.

Recall no serious news thatmay affect markets, we do not expect. Geopolitics is in a slight lull, but this primarily concerns Brexit, where no news is expected in the near future. In addition, the trade war between the United States and China has also subsided. There are no obvious exacerbations of the conflict and, therefore, interest in risk is slowly starting to recover. This situation is displayed for those instruments that are traditionally havens, they are declining. We are talking primarily about gold, it is an important indicator of interest in risk. Let's look at each trading instrument, see what happens.

EUR / USD

The pair EUR / USD is near the mark of 1.10 is a powerful resistance level. While the pair cannot break higher, there is no serious decline either. The range 1.095-1.100 is maintained, if the pair manages to break above 1.10, then a fairly powerful upward movement will be obtained. Apparently, above the level of 1.10 concentrated stop orders for the purchase, it is likely that we will get a movement of 40-50 points.

Dollar under pressure. Bitcoin down? Buy gold?

In general, no global changes in the situation are expected here, the general range 1.08-1.11 will remain until the end of the year.

GBP / USD

Consolidation is also noted here, allquiet enough. The pound has rebounded from recent lows near 1.22 and trading is concentrated around 1.23, that is, approximately 1.225-1.235 - these one hundred points will now cover all fluctuations.
Dollar under pressure. Bitcoin down? Buy gold?

The main driver is the processbreksit, the deadline is already expiring on October 31, and the United Kingdom should withdraw from the European Union, whether with or without a deal. So far, no hints have been seen that this date will be somehow rescheduled. The closer it is to October 31, the stronger the increase in volatility will be.

Now the whole process is bogged down in the confrontation betweenJohn and Parliament, it is not clear how the political system of Great Britain will continue to behave, whether they can find a compromise or this situation will lead to Johnson's resignation. At the moment, we cannot offer a more or less specific scenario, and we can only watch the news.

XAU / USD

Let's go back to this metal, in general, alsoconsolidation around the mark of $ 1,500. The technical picture remains fairly moderately positive, as gold is above the $ 1,480 mark, an uptrend is still in effect.

The aggravation of the geopolitical situation will cause a newan influx of funds and most likely, we will see growth in the direction of $ 1520, maybe even $ 1535. In general, the current week will indicate a period of consolidation, while there are no facts that could change this.

Dollar under pressure. Bitcoin down? Buy gold?

As for technical prospects, then ongold chart, especially on the weekly chart, a triangle shape is formed. It offers a consolidation gap and a move in some direction, while the chances are equal.

Dollar under pressure. Bitcoin down? Buy gold?

Oil (Brent)

As we have noted, here is quite powerfuldowntrend. Again, the $ 55 mark remained untouched and the $ 56 oil did not linger. Thus, the old range remains valid, globally it is $ 55-65 for the next few months.

Dollar under pressure. Bitcoin down? Buy gold?

Pressure will persist, probability of declineremains higher than the probability of growth. Apparently, such oil dynamics will continue in the near future, the current trading range of $ 58-60 remains. Amid growing interest in risk, there is a chance that there will be another attempt to grow towards the $ 61 mark.

BTC / USD

The cryptocurrency market also continuesconsolidation, but today there are some interesting thoughts about this. Once again, Bitcoin tried to drop below the $ 7,700 mark and again it rebounded from $ 7,750-7770. Now the price of the first cryptocurrency is again above $ 8000, which implies the preservation of the consolidation period.

From a technical point of view, Bitcoin willstay under pressure until he manages to gain a foothold above the band of $ 9100-9200. These figures are still very far, today it is better that Bitcoin can climb above $ 8000 and stabilize in a narrow range of $ 8100-8500.

Dollar under pressure. Bitcoin down? Buy gold?

Demand is at $ 7800 in the near futureit will persist and with a break above $ 8500, the chances of growth will increase sharply. As for some global events, we can only highlight that the US Securities Commission once again refused to recognize Bitcoin as a security. Of course, this affects the decision not to grant the right to open an ITF fund in bitcoins. The general news background remains moderately negative for Bitcoin and for the entire crypto sector. Now few expect a major breakthrough. Once again, we see that the confrontation between the legislators of the financial industry and the cryptocurrency market persists, and no compromise is expected in the near future. Thus, everything indicates that the current week is a period of consolidation and fairly moderate trading activity.

Vasily Barsukov (Chief Dealer WELTRADE)