Comments by Yuri Mazur, Head of Data Analysis Department of CEX.IO Broker
April for most traditional financial platforms have passed enoughpredictable. Brent crude oil quotes have been maintained above $ 60 per barrel throughout the month. At the slightest hint of black gold to leave the wide corridor of $ 60- $ 70, either technical or fundamental factors were connected. The area near $ 70 became a strong resistance level, a large number of sell orders were concentrated here, which technically reduced the strength of the bulls. The level of $ 60 was diligently defended by the news - on May 3, Brent quotes were at $ 67.58, ignoring the desire of the OPEC + countries to increase production in May and the sad statistics on COVID-19 in the world. Gold during the month showed a tendency to rise in price, opening at $ 1,708 per troy ounce. At the end of April, the precious metal stormed values near $ 1,800. The main driver of gold movement was negative news on COVID-19 in the world, as investors tried to hedge the risks of an outbreak of a new epidemic and are still assessing the chances of the countries of the world getting out of the global lockdown.
Foreign exchange markets have shown resilience,despite the fact that closer to the middle of the month, experts began to talk about the reversal of the trend in favor of the dollar. Most of the major currencies have remained within established ranges. The Russian ruble also showed stability - on May 3, the quotes of the USD / RUB pair were at 75.20, while April started at 75.69. The aggravation of the foreign policy and economic conjuncture had a significant impact on investors, but some softening of the rhetoric of the President of the Russian Federation and the President of the United States reassured market participants. The value of EUR / RUB reacted to any movements of the USD / RUB pair, and the aggravation of diplomatic relations between the EU and the Russian Federation at a certain moment brought the value of the euro up beyond the range of 89-91. Also, the news about the requirements of European parliamentarians to disconnect the Russian Federation from SWIFT did not add optimism to market participants. However, the EUR / RUB pair traded at 90.38 on May 3, starting April at 88.78.
The dynamics of the cryptocurrency market was in fullin line with our forecast to recalibrate investor portfolios towards altcoins. Ethereum and Ripple became the main beneficiaries of investments in the crypto market. As we predicted, Ripple showed strong growth just short of $ 2 per coin. The main factor of the upward movement of the coin was the news about the SEC and Ripple trial. Media reports indicate the ambiguous position of the American regulator and the hopes of the crypto community for an amicable agreement or even a win for Ripple. By the way, at the end of the month, they tried to warm up positive sentiments with the news of Ripple's IPO, if the trial was successful. Ethereum began to gain weight sharply towards the end of April, when the Berlin hard fork took place. Nevertheless, in our opinion, the main reason for the growth was the recalibration of assets in the portfolios of institutional investors. On May 3, according to the CEX.IO exchange, the ETH / USD pair ended at $ 3,290 and in May, most likely, Ethereum will try to storm the $ 5,000 value. Nevertheless, it is also possible that ETH / USD will rebound to the $ 2,500 level. and like bitcoin, the pair will be traded in a wide range. Bitcoin has been trying to reach new highs throughout the past month, but these plans have been constantly disrupted by either technical or fundamental factors. So, towards the end of April, it became known that Tesla had taken a profit by closing 10% of its investment position in bitcoin. This news somewhat knocked down the pressure of the bulls, returning the BTC / USD quotes to the levels of $ 55,000 - $ 58,000. In general, we maintain a positive attitude towards cryptocurrencies and believe that in May the crypto market will continue a gradual bullish movement with an emphasis on altcoins.
Dynamics of assets in April:
- Brent oil rose from $ 63.54 to $ 67.58 (+ 6.36%)
- Gold rose from $ 1,708 to $ 1,790 (+ 4.80%)
- The USD / RUB pair fell from 75.69 to 75.20 (-0.64%)
- The EUR / RUB pair rose from 88.80 to 90.38 (+ 1.78%)
- Bitcoin fell from $ 58,763 to $ 57,720 (-1.77%)
- Ethereum rose from $ 1,917 to $ 3,290 (+ 71.62%)