Comments by Yuri Mazur, Head of Data Analysis Department of CEX.IO Broker
April for most traditionalI've been through enough financial platformspredictable. Brent oil prices remained above $60 per barrel throughout the month. At the slightest hint of black gold leaving the wide $60-$70 corridor, either technical or fundamental factors were involved. The area near $70 became a strong resistance level; a large number of sell orders were concentrated here, which technically reduced the strength of the bulls. The level of $60 was diligently defended by the news - on May 3, Brent quotes were at $67.58, ignoring the desire of the OPEC+ countries to increase production in May and the sad statistics on COVID-19 in the world. Gold showed a tendency to rise in price during the month, opening at $1,708 per troy ounce. At the end of April, the precious metal stormed to values near $1,800. The main driver of gold’s movement was negative news about COVID-19 in the world, as investors tried to hedge the risks of an outbreak of a new epidemic and are still assessing the chances of countries around the world emerging from the global lockdown.
Currency markets have demonstrated resilience,despite the fact that closer to the middle of the month, experts began to talk about breaking the trend in favor of the dollar. Most major currencies remained within established ranges. The Russian ruble also demonstrated stability - on May 3, quotes for the USD/RUB pair were at 75.20, while April began at 75.69. The aggravation of the foreign policy and economic situation had a significant impact on investors, however, some softening of the rhetoric of the President of the Russian Federation and the President of the United States calmed market participants. The value of EUR/RUB reacted to any movements of the USD/RUB pair, and the aggravation of diplomatic relations between the EU countries and the Russian Federation at a certain moment brought the value of the euro up beyond the range of 89-91. Also, news about the demands of European parliamentarians to disconnect the Russian Federation from SWIFT did not add optimism to market participants. However, on May 3, the EUR/RUB pair was trading at 90.38, having started April at 88.78.
The dynamics of the cryptocurrency market were in full swingin accordance with our forecast about the recalibration of investors’ investment portfolios towards altcoins. The main beneficiaries of investments in the crypto market were Ethereum and Ripple. As we predicted, Ripple showed strong growth, falling just short of $2 per coin. The main factor in the upward movement of the coin was the news about the SEC and Ripple court case. Media reports indicate an ambiguous position of the American regulator and hopes of the crypto community for a settlement agreement or even a win for Ripple. By the way, at the end of the month they tried to fuel positive sentiment with news about Ripple going public with a successful outcome of the trial. Ethereum began to gain weight sharply towards the end of April, when the Berlin hard fork took place. However, in our opinion, the main reason for the growth was the recalibration of assets in the portfolios of institutional investors. On May 3, according to the CEX.IO exchange, the ETH/USD pair ended at $3,290 and in May, most likely, Ethereum will try to storm the level of $5,000. However, it is also possible that ETH/USD will rebound to the level of $2,500 and like Bitcoin, the pair will be traded in a wide range. Bitcoin has been trying to reach new highs over the past month, but these plans have been constantly disrupted by either technical or fundamental factors. Thus, towards the end of April, it became known that Tesla took a profit by closing 10% of its investment position in Bitcoin. This news somewhat brought down the pressure of the bulls, returning BTC/USD quotes to the levels of $55,000 - $58,000. In general, we remain positive on cryptocurrencies and believe that in May the crypto market will continue its gradual bullish movement with an emphasis on altcoins.
Asset dynamics for April:
— Brent oil rose from $63.54 to $67.58 (+6.36%)
— Gold rose from $1,708 to $1,790 (+4.80%)
— The USD/RUB pair fell from 75.69 to 75.20 (-0.64%)
— The EUR/RUB pair rose from 88.80 to 90.38 (+1.78%)
— Bitcoin fell from $58,763 to $57,720 (-1.77%)
— Ethereum rose from $1,917 to $3,290 (+71.62%)