BTC rate on the S2F model, followed by growth to $ 100,000

Planb analyst claims that the last decrease in bitcoin did not violate the model according to which the price shouldrise to $ 100,000 by December 2021.

PlanB builds its forecast on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which is calculated as the ratio of already issued assets to new ones entering the market and used as evidence of their “hardness”.

The S2F model is a long-term forecast thattakes data from previous bitcoin halvings and calculates the future price range. According to PlanB, the creator of this model, the last sharp collapse of bitcoin still does not go beyond S2F, despite the panic in the market.

According to proponents of the model, significantthe superiority of the existing offer over the new issue is the preferred characteristic for a cash exchange commodity. At the same time, the predictability of bitcoin emission laid down at the protocol level makes it easy to fit it into this model.

“Here is a S2F chart adapted to today's crash. Nothing terrible happened, bitcoin still follows the model "- writes Planb.

#Bitcoin S2F Chart Adjusted for Today ’ S « Crash » … Nothing REALLY HAPPENED, BTC Still Spot on S2F Track Pic.twitter.com/7biazpwglb

- PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) March 8, 2020

Previous halving combined with the model, and the analyst expects to receive one more confirmation of its correctness after the May decline in reward.

The S2F model has gained significant popularity inThe cryptocurrency community thanks to the bull scenario drawn by it. At the same time, she has many critics. So, Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisental considers her “complete nonsense”, and analysts team of the Trezor hardware critic Criclay is called forecasting the course without taking into account the demand “nonsense”. One of the largest German banks Bayerische Landesbank (Bayernlb), on the other hand, in his analysis came to approximately the same conclusions as Planb.

“The model is inspiring. It is good in that it helps to draw attention to the predictability of Bitcoin's monetary policy based on consensus and to reduce its output over time, while the emission of other currencies can increase. I think these are key concepts for bitcoin. ”,-said the CEO of the hedge fund Three Arrows Capital Su Zhu, while recommending the traders not to overdo it if they still decide to follow the S2F.

PlanB rejects critics' comments, continuing to insist that they are untenable, while its observations are supported by real data.

Volatility before previous halvings

Despite the unprecedented volatility ontraditional markets in recent days, the fundamental value of bitcoin has not changed. Although the short-term outlook for Bitcoin seems “bearish,” in fact, nothing but the price has changed.

The final supply of bitcoins will still beamount to 21 million coins, and this is still an uncorrelated asset, resistant to censorship and allowing for p2p payments, while its technology is developing at a record pace.

Before and after the two previous halvings, there were also similar decreases in bitcoin prices, as shown in the chart from Blockchaincenter.net:

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Perhaps now we see the last chance to getBitcoin at a significant discount before halving. According to PlanB's S2F model, the price of bitcoin after this event can be set at $ 55,000 per coin.

 

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