July 21, 2024

Bitcoin: Void, Beauty, and Theorver

Oddly enough, about Bitcoin. Let me make a reservation right away: I’m never a fan of this thing, and I’m unlikely to be oneI will. Nevertheless - I had them. And even a little bit more. It is precisely in the genre of this paradox that I will explain: how to be a cryptopessimist and at the same time get into it and not see a contradiction.

Please don't say this is prepackaged emptiness and a pyramid. Firstly, I myself am inclined to this idea - they won’t tell me anything new here.

Secondly, this idea is not correct, although IFor some reason I lean towards her. Today, bitcoins still fetch several thousand dollars. Emptiness isn't worth that much. But even an MMM ticket is an asset as long as they give at least some money for it. So what is it? And also ether, ripple, monero, dash, what else was there? It seems to be written on the cryptocurrency that it is a currency, but let’s not believe our eyes. As they say, there is also a lot written on the barn, and there is firewood there.Least of allit felt like money. The value of money cannot increase 10 times in a year, nor can it be an investment with 100% risk.

        At the time of their emergence, cryptocurrencies most resembled shares of venture startups with elements of a scam.

I say “at the moment of appearance” becausethe meaning of such assets is different at different points in time. Today - a venture startup, tomorrow - a global giant or trash. But the meaning of investing in crypto has so far been the same as in a startup. What if it really becomes something, as it is intended? Well, you never know, anything can happen. And the claim is rather that it will become something like gold rather than cash.

        That is, rather a means of preserving value than payment.

         Don't believe what will happen? Okay, let it not become money or gold, but some kind of ersatz, but some will value it. You don't believe it, butas far asYou don't believe it? Let's say 90%.No, not even 99%. But still, a reasonable person leaves the possibility that the capitalization of bitcoin will be equal to the world capitalization of gold. Let this possibility weigh 1%. But the capitalization of gold is around 5-10 trillion dollars. If we look at the price of bitcoin in 2015, see 300 dollars, know that there will be 21 million coins in total, and give 1% probability that the cost will be equal to gold, and let there be 99% probability that it is junk, worthless. Investment recommendation in this case:buy. Because underestimation in the best scenario is more than 99%. This figure outweighs 99% of disbelief.

         And if disbelief weighs only 90%, thenyou should take it for 5000 dollars. Even bolder scenarios are possible, and there is more confidence in them. But once the price of bitcoin was equal to 1 dollar. I believe,there is no such degree of pessimism that would prohibit buying at this price– however, at this price, few people knew about the project.

I knew enough about him to buymy first bitcoin (I will consider it sold long ago using the FIFO method) in 2014 for about $500, about the same as the Winklevoss brothers. And those coins have already been sold, earlier than they should have been, but with a profit multiple of the initial amount. At the same time, mind you, I never believed in bitcoin like many of its adherents, believing that it is not money and will never become money. In this sense, I was more of a crypto-pessimist.

But the genius of this idea is simple and beautiful.

        Buying crypto didn't require "believing" in it.

         I mean to believe 100%, as it should be,in an almost religious sense about "our new money". The whole question is what weights you attribute to your unbelief, and what growth potential to a scenario that is not yours at all. And this is if you buy for investment purposes, i.e. to keep for years in cold storage andthrow down a ladder as it approaches the fair price. Because if crypto ever really became normal money, it wouldn't be worth keeping capital in normal money.

If someone objects that most ofcrypto projects, if not all, will end in nothing, it's a pump, dump and dashed hopes - of course, that's true, but that's not an objection. That's how it should be. That's the normal fate of equity participation in venture startups. Scammers and especially semi-scammers should, by definition, dominate this area. Simply because it's much easier to portray a promising venture project than to implement it, and if you only portray it, there will be a reward too. That's all true. But it's also true outside the crypto world.

By the way, if you don’t hold this asset, buttrading - will essentially be a different asset. This is not an investment in an asset at all, but in a series of trades, in other words, in a trading system (provided, of course, that your trades are systematic).

        This magical transformation happens to anything.

         Gold ceases to be gold, currencyceases to be a currency, especially it is not clear what - ceases to be it is not clear what, becoming ordinary speculative capital placed on crypto exchanges. The security there is worse. The volatility and trending are better. I was almost never there, I don’t need it - I remember buying on a now defunct exchange in 2014, and then selling there some time later.

***

Just in case, my book: www.alpinabook.ru/catalog/personal-investments/555670/

          my VK group about the exchange: vk.com/dengi_bez_durakov

         second group, about thinking vk.com/filosofia_bez_durakov
          
Blog and autofollow on Comon: https://www.comon.ru/user/voldemort/profile/

          Analytics aggregator. Information is collected from hundreds of sources. Therefore, a signal on an instrument is obtained from the array. And yes, this is advertising:     u.to/m8elFQ