February 8, 2023

Bitcoin: Void, Beauty, and Theorver

Strangely enough, about Bitcoin. I’ll make a reservation right away: I’ve never been a lover of this thing, and hardly any I will. Nevertheless - I had them. And even a little bit more. It is precisely in the genre of this paradox that I will explain: how to be a cryptopessimist and at the same time get into it and not see a contradiction.

Please do not say that it is a packaged void and a pyramid. Firstly, I myself am inclined to this thought - they will not tell me anything new here.

Secondly, this thought is not true, although I am to herfor some reason I bow. Today, bitcoin is still being paid for several thousand dollars. Emptiness is not worth so much. But even an MMM ticket is an asset, while they give at least some money for it. So what is it? As well as ether, ripple, monero, dash, what else was there? It is as if written on cryptocurrency that it is a currency, but we will not believe our eyes. As they say, a lot of things are also written on the barn, and there is firewood. Least of all it was like money. The cost of money cannot increase 10 times a year, nor can it be an investment with 100% risk.

Most cryptocurrencies at the time of appearance resembled stocks of venture startups with elements of a scam.

I say "at the time of appearance" because the meaningsuch assets are different at different points in time. Today is a venture startup, tomorrow is a global giant or trash. But the meaning of investing in crypto so far has been the same as in a startup. Suddenly it really will become something, how is it going? Well, you never know, everything happens. Moreover, the claim is more likely that it will become more of a sort of gold than a cache.

That is, rather a means of preserving value than payment.

Do not believe what will become? Well, let it not be money and not gold, but some kind of ersatz, but some will appreciate it. You don't believe but as far as don't you believe that? Let's say 90%. No, even 99%. But still, an intelligent person leaves the possibility that the capitalization of Bitcoin will be equal to the global capitalization of gold. Let this opportunity weigh 1%. But the capitalization of gold in the region of 5-10 trillion. dollars. If we look at the price of bitcoin in 2015, we see $ 300, we know that there will be 21 million coins in total, and we give a 1% probability that the value will be equal to gold, and let there be a 99% probability that this is rubbish, worthless . Investment recommendation in this case: buy. Because underestimation in the best scenario is more than 99%. This figure outweighs 99% of disbelief.

And if unbelief weighs only 90%, then you need to take for $ 5,000. Even bolder scenarios are possible, and more confidence in them. But once, the price of bitcoin was equal to 1 dollar. I guess there is no such degree of pessimism that would prohibit buying at this price - True, at this price, few knew about the project.

I knew enough about him to buy my firstBitcoin (it will be considered by the FIFO method it has already been sold for a long time) in 2014, somewhere in the region of $ 500, approximately like the Winklevoss brothers. And those coins have already been sold, earlier than they should, but with a profit that is a multiple of the larger initial amount. At the same time, mind you, I never believed in bitcoin like many of its adherents, believing that this is not money and will never become money. In this sense, I was rather a crypto-pessimist.

But the genius of this idea is simple and beautiful.

To buy a crypt, it was not at all necessary to “believe” in it.

In the sense of believing 100%, as expected, in almostthe religious sense of "our new money." The whole question is, what weight do you ascribe to your unbelief, and what growth potential is for a scenario that is not yours at all. And this is the case if you buy for investment purposes, i.e. keep for years in cold storage and throw down a ladder as it approaches the fair price. Because if crypto really ever became normal money, it would not be worth keeping capital in normal money.

If someone argues that mostcryptoprojects, if not all, will end in nothing, it’s a pump, dump and deceived hopes - of course, that’s all, but this is not an objection. It should be so. This is the normal fate of equity participation in venture startups. Crooks, and especially half-crooks, by definition, should dominate in this area. Just because portraying a promising venture project is much easier than implementing it, and if only portraying, there will also be a reward. That is all true. But this is also true outside the crypto world.

By the way, if you do not hold this asset, but trade -there will be essentially another asset. This is generally an investment not in an asset, but in a series of trades, in other words, in a trading system (provided, of course, that your trades are systemic).

This magical transformation happens with anything.

Gold ceases to be gold, currency ceases to beto be a currency, the more it is not clear that - it ceases to be incomprehensible than, becoming an ordinary speculative capital placed on cryptocurrency exchanges. Security is worse there. With volatility and trending better. I almost never was there, I don’t need to - I remember buying at the now-deceased exchange in 2014, then selling it there after some time.


Just in case, my book: www.alpinabook.ru/catalog/personal-investments/555670/

my VK group about the exchange: vk.com/dengi_bez_durakov

second group, about thinking vk.com/filosofia_bez_durakov

blog and auto follow on Comon: https://www.comon.ru/user/voldemort/profile/

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