February 4, 2023

Bitcoin in the new year

This publication begins the traditional at that time series of reviews for the future. Consider what was said a year ago, during this period, as well as what to expect next.

The movement in the cryptocurrency market over the past year has been a classic example of working out sentiment (crowd mood). Such clarity is not so often seen in the classic market.

2019 for bitcoin (takes the main coin) began at extremelypessimistic moods. The next “pyramid” was criticized by everyone who could, there were no prospects, “whales”, “manipulators”, “dolls” brought everyone apart, and the next goal was 500 and 100. Obviously, such sentiments are the exact opposite of December 2017 and will soon a new cycle began. At the end of November, a review was released with a commentary on this situation and a forecast:

There is the exact opposite of mania,which was a year ago. A characteristic feature: “regular news resources (non-core) were connected to the exposure of the next pyramid, which was not observed several months ago. Based on this, it is very likely that the bottom is somewhere close.


Bitcoin in the new year


Bitcoin in the new year

Indeed, having completed several more divisions, a U-turn began. To confirm the development of a serious trend, a no less serious impulse was needed upward.

On May 13, such an update was released.

The upward movement continued and graduallycame to a climax. The graph schematically (goals conditionally) shows the main and alternative (red) options. In the near future, we should expect a correction, both in its shape and size, and most importantly: if we see after this a new local maximum, it will be possible to speak in more detail about the long-term and future.

Bitcoin in the new year

Subsequently, unit (4) - (5) was completed.


The climax ended with the 5th passing after the triangle in wave 4, this means the formation of an impulse from 3132 has ended (or near the end), which confirms the scenario with a movement above 20,000.

Bitcoin in the new year

In this situation, we will again observe sentiment: here it is already clearly bullish.

Recall what it was in November-December lastyears when purchases could be considered the pinnacle of stupidity and the most modest forecasts were 1000 - 2000, but basically 400-500 or “disappear altogether”. The most persistent crypto enthusiasts have also become more modest in the prospects of the future “world reserve currency” (recall 2017). And “from nowhere” a powerful movement began. Now the opposite is true: everywhere you can hear 40,000, 100,000, etc., and everyone who talked about the "divorce", prepared to buy.

The above example of crowd behavior is nothingdifferent from similar situations in the classic market. This is a question of the lack of understanding by many of the principle of his work, hence the various conspiracy theories: a pyramid; some manipulators that deceive everyone, etc. However, in reality, everything turns out to be simpler and more predictable.

A correction began on these moods, which probably has recently ended having stepped into the indicated range.

Further growth is expected next year.

Bitcoin in the new year

The monthly chart above shows the movement in the channel (for the entire history). Its upper boundary is at above 200,000 . It should be recalled right away that this is not the purpose of the movement , and a theoretical opportunity based on a previous story. First you need to get to its middle (dash line). We also note how strong the support line is the lower border.

The indicated figures for many arefantastic, but who would have thought at the end of 2016, when bitcoin was 700-900, and Ethereum around 10, that such a growth would occur. Therefore, who knows, in the new year we will monitor the situation and make adjustments in the process.


This week, free access toclosed section. Readers can familiarize themselves with the forecasts of the movement of cryptocurrencies and other tools, as well as find out the accuracy of execution. Details: elliotwave.org/2019/12/12/akciyaotkrytyj-dostup-k-zakrytomu-razdelu/

More details: ELLIOTWAVE.ORG