June 19, 2024

Bitcoin in the new year

This publication begins the traditional series of reviews for the future at this time. Consider what was saida year ago, during this period, and also what to expect in the next one.

The movement in the cryptocurrency market over the past year has been a classic example of sentiment (crowd sentiment) playing off. You don't see this kind of clarity very often on the classic market anymore.

2019 for bitcoin(taken by the main coin) began onextremely pessimistic moods. The next “pyramid” was criticized by everyone who could, there were no prospects, “whales”, “manipulators”, “dolls” deceived everyone, and the next goal was 500 and 100. Obviously, such sentiments are the complete opposite of December 2017 and should soon a new cycle was about to begin. At the end of November, a review was published with a commentary on this situation and a forecast:

There is the exact opposite of mania,which was a year ago. A characteristic feature: “regular news resources (non-core) were connected to the exposure of the next pyramid, which was not observed several months ago. Based on this, it is very likely that the bottom is somewhere close.


Bitcoin in the new year


Bitcoin in the new year

Indeed, after completing a few more units downward, the reversal began. To confirm the development of a serious trend, an equally serious upward impulse was needed.

This update was released on May 13th.

The upward movement continued and graduallycame to a climax. The graph schematically (the goals are conditional) shows the main and alternative (in red) options. In the near future, we should expect a correction based on its shape and size, and most importantly: whether we see a new local maximum after this, it will be possible to talk more substantively about the long-term and perspective.

Bitcoin in the new year

Subsequently, unit (4) - (5) was completed.


The climax ended with the 5th passing after the triangle in wave 4,this means the formation of an impulse from 3132 has ended (or near the end), which confirms the scenario with a movement above 20,000.

Bitcoin in the new year

In this situation, we will again observe sentiment: here it is already clearly bullish.

 Let's remember what it was like in November-December lastyears when purchases could be considered the height of stupidity and the most modest forecasts were 1000-2000, but mostly 400-500 or “will disappear altogether.” The most persistent crypto enthusiasts have also become more modest about the prospects for a future “world reserve currency” (remember 2017). And then “out of nowhere” a powerful movement began. Now it’s the other way around: everywhere you can hear 40,000, 100,000, etc., and everyone who talked about a “divorce” is ready to buy.

The above example of crowd behavior is nothingdifferent from similar situations in the classic market. This is a question of the lack of understanding by many of the principle of his work, hence the various conspiracy theories: a pyramid; some manipulators that deceive everyone, etc. However, in reality, everything turns out to be simpler and more predictable.

Based on these sentiments, a correction began, which probably ended recently by falling into the indicated range.

Further growth is expected next year.

Bitcoin in the new year

The monthly chart above shows the movement in the channel (historically). Its upper boundary is at the levelabove 200,000. It should be immediately recalled thatthis is not the purpose of the movement, but a theoretical possibility based on previous history. First you need to reach its middle (dashed line). We also note what a strong support line the lower border is.

The indicated figures for many arefantastic, but who would have thought at the end of 2016, when bitcoin was 700-900, and Ethereum around 10, that such a growth would occur. Therefore, who knows, in the new year we will monitor the situation and make adjustments in the process.


This week opens free access toclosed section. Readers can get acquainted with forecasts for the movement of cryptocurrencies and other instruments, as well as find out the accuracy of execution. Details: elliotwave.org/2019/12/12/akciyaotkrytyj-dostup-k-zakrytomu-razdelu/

More details: ELLIOTWAVE.ORG