Good afternoon friends,
I would like to share my opinion why in the near future I see a reduction inBitcoin to around 3000, and maybe even lower.
Let's look at the daily chart.We see that BTC, despite the growth, is still in a downtrend. The price has been strictly in a downward channel for almost a year now, with a false breakout downwards in March. And even if the price breaks the upper limit of this channel (currently at 9400-9500), this will not mean a global change in trend. This could simply be a false breakout to the upside. But if it reaches the 10,500 mark and stays there for several trading sessions, then yes, I think we can say that the downtrend is broken, and it is quite possible to expect the price in the next six months or a year to be above 14,000. If such a scenario is realized, then I will look for entry points during correction. As an option, take a position when the price corrects just to the upper border of the channel.
Another scenario, I consider it a priority:
The price bounces off the upper border of the channel(9400-9500) and goes down, or makes a false breakout beyond 9400, or even goes all the way to 10500 and still goes down. The goals of such a movement will be to update the March minimum, that is, below 4000. It is not yet clear where to go short. I'll watch.
And one more thing ... Regarding the bottom ... Price reduction to3800-4000, which was in early March, I do not think the bottom. I think everyone will agree that the crypto market is extremely manipulative. Large players drive the course to their advantage. By a major player I mean people with a capital of several tens of millions of dollars and more. It takes time to purchase or get rid of positions for such an amount. For several days this can not be done, for obvious reasons. The bottom was at the end of 2018 - April 2019. The price then stood in a narrow range, the volatility was minimal and lasted about six months. In such a market, large players can easily accumulate large positions, which they subsequently got rid of at 14,000. In March, the price of the wick touched 3800. A major player would not have time to gain a position. This means that in order for the price to rise to at least 14,000 again, low prices and its consolidation in a certain range for a long period of time are needed.
Such thoughts…
Write in the comments what you think about the above. Criticism is warmly welcomed.
Good luck and good to all.
