Excerpt from June 2021 Elliott Wave Financial Prediction
The belief that bitcoin seizes power, so deep that eveninstills optimism in children. We talked about this phenomenon in relation to the stock market last month. This May 16 Bloomberg column signals her emergence in the cryptocurrency world: "Why am I paying my seventh grader in bitcoin." The columnist claims that he wants his "children to think independently about money" and "feel the full range of feelings that money evokes." Surely why not feel the burn of the real world? Besides, big children do it too. According to MarketWatch, "as Bitcoin and Dogecoin plummet, college students" are "taking longs in crypto." According to a survey by College Finance, "More than 60% of college students and recent college graduates see cryptocurrency as a long-term investment."
In April, the EWFF showed a positive image of bitcoin andother cryptocurrencies on the covers of two magazines. We called this bearish for the near term outlook for Bitcoin. We added last month that the "great arrival" of bitcoins in the "mainstream" of finance confirmed this prediction. One of the signals https://ruh666.livejournal.com/784818.html of the adoption of cryptocurrency in the financial establishment was the emergence of Coinbase Global Inc. as a publicly traded company. On May 19, when bitcoin fell more than 53% from its high, Bloomberg noted the following about the leading cryptocurrency trading platform: “The sweet song peaked with the debut of Coinbase Global Inc. on the market on April 14. The direct listing of the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange reinforced the theory that cryptocurrency had become the mainstream of investment, that Wall Street's embrace gave legitimacy to an asset class and only the sky was the limit. Retail investors flooded in. "
The graph shows the relationship between the maximumbitcoin and the Coinbase public offering that happened on the same day. The chart also shows that crypto-optimism has continued to rise as so-called altcoins, dash, litecoin and ethereum rallied to May 7, 10, and 12, respectively. Then they collapsed. Other indicators also turned on. Fund managers have never been as passionate about Bitcoin as they were in the first few days of May, according to a monthly survey by Bank of America. A survey of 194 managers showed that bitcoin was the “busiest deal,” with 43% saying they were long in bitcoin. This figure for cryptocurrency was the highest in the history of the survey, which was conducted since December 2013. Bitcoin was also the leading asset of fund managers in January, with 40% holding cryptocurrency back then. The only other months in which Bitcoin was the leading asset were September and December 2017, when about 30% of fund managers said they own cryptocurrency. Bitcoin made a high that same month and fell 84% over the next 12 months. The same setup is already on its way to achieving a similar result.
If there is one thing that Bitcoin enthusiastscannot accept, because this is criticism. In early May, after Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger called the cryptocurrency "contrary to the interests of civilization," "crypto enthusiasts ridiculed its investment performance, compared him to an elderly Muppet, and said he was too old to understand the technology." A well-known crypto investor / CEO added, "Are you going to your great-grandfather for advice on investing in new technologies?" And, of course, there is dogecoin, which has become a joke turned into a crypto blue chip that recently showed its curtain. As discussed last month, the cryptocurrency caught its star on Saturday night live on May 8, where guest host Elon Musk mentioned the joke currency. At the same time, the price of dogecoin fell by 30%. From a peak of 74 cents, dogecoin fell 70% by May 19.
This is what the EWFF advised to look for in the culture withthe onset of a new trend: "When the bear market begins, the focus shifts from crypto speculation to crypto crimes and scandals." It didn't take long. On May 12, two days after the Dow's recent intraday high, Bloomberg Businessweek columnist Joe Light reported that the "criminal gang" responsible for the cyber-terrorist attack that cut off 45% of fuel supplies to the East Coast demanded a "ransom in bitcoin or other cryptocurrency." This is "contrary to the interests of civilization." He went on to list the various ways that regulators are moving into the crypto sphere. When Bitcoin plunged more than 30% on May 19, attacks on cryptocurrency legitimacy continued. "China has banned the use of cryptocurrencies for financial institutions," Barron’s said. “Other countries may consider tighter regulation, especially as cryptocurrency is becoming the currency of choice for ransomware hackers. Tesla has stopped accepting bitcoin as payment for cars. " On May 21, Bloomberg published an editorial stating that "the price of bitcoin is completely unrelated to any practical use." It is useless as a means of payment and value preservation (unless you are a criminal). Your cryptocurrency costs exactly what the next buyer pays, and this may be much less than you hope. " This has always been the case in investment markets. When Bitcoin started to crash after December 2017, the EWFF remarked: “Bear markets are always more volatile than bull markets. However, higher volatility will further damage bitcoin's role as a medium of exchange, destroying its role as a store of value. The currency has always been vulnerable to this vicious circle. "
Attacks on public forums occur becausethat the vicious part of the cycle continues again. But this does not mean that optimism has somehow faded away. Bitcoin hedge funds reportedly view the downturn as "nothing more than a sell." Here is a quote from a Singapore hedge fund operator on May 21st: “Every time we see a massive liquidation, there is a chance to buy. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin and Ethereum retrace their entire plunge in a week. " On May 19, Bloomberg reports that the well-known investment manager "keeps the faith." “At times like these, we go through soul searching,” she says. "Our conviction is just as high." The Bloomberg headline says she is still "bitcoin supporter sees it rise to $ 500,000." We assume this will not be Bitcoin's last wild prediction.
Digging, sweating and analyzing - you relaxand make a decision. “You don’t know what you don’t know,” they say. Truth. Not for excuse, of course, but sometimes you just can't know - because you don't even know where to look. We do. At EWI, we look at over 100 market indicators. Only now we look at it from a different angle - with Elliott waves. Differences? Often, when others only see risk, we see upside potential - and vice versa.
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