April is the traditional month of Bitcoin growth

Historically, Bitcoin is rising strongly in April, but what is the probability of a repeat of the scenario and what do they sayMainmacro indicators? Let's figure it out.

On average over the past three years, the increase in Apriloccurred by 40%, which brings us to $73,360 from the current value of Bitcoin. Seems incredible? But Bitcoin options traders don’t think so. Currently, the leading contract on the derivatives exchanges is the April 30 call expiring at $80,000, with a total interest of 4,469 positions worth $240 million.

A call option gives the right, but not the obligation, to buyan underlying asset at a given price before its expiration date. The premium for an $80,000 contract is now a relatively small 0.016 BTC. However, the concentration of interest at this level indicates that traders expect significant growth in Bitcoin next month.

A bigger argument for growthis the ongoing withdrawal of cryptocurrencies to cold wallets. March 25 saw the largest churn this year, with over 1,365 BTC, and the monthly net supply change on cryptocurrency exchanges reached its lowest value in three years.

Deficit of supply and withdrawal of Bitcoin for storageis a reflection of the Fed's monetary policy and the continued stimulus of the US government. A new $ 1.9 trillion antique package was approved this month, and Biden's team is already working on the next one, which reaches $ 3 trillion. Inflation expectations for the US dollar have exceeded the 2% mark and continue to rise. This leads more and more institutional investors to hold funds in Bitcoin, which increases the chances of another April spike in prices.

What do you think is the probability of Bitcoin reaching new highs in April? Let us know in the comments!

 

Analytical group StormGain