Yuri Mazur, Head of Data Analysis Department, CEX.IO Broker:
On Monday, MicroStrategy announcedbuying another 13,005 bitcoins for about $ 489 million. Such an ambitious deal clearly indicates that large investors regard the current BTC price levels against the US dollar as low enough to profit from further growth in its quotes. This could signal good buy levels to a broader market segment and trigger a new wave of growth.
Impact of the US Federal Reserve on the dynamics of the crypto market
Also don't forget о том, что сейчас уровень инфляции в экономике The United States has reached its highest level since 2008, which could lead to further devaluation of the US dollar and an increase in its level of investment risk. In this regard, investors will be inclined to look for new capital protection tools, which was clearly manifested after the historical decline in the country's GDP by 32.9% in the second quarter of 2020. A wave of growth followed in gold and bitcoin, which was hastily seen as a good alternative tool for protecting capital from inflationary risks due to its technological structure.
В нынешней ситуации немаловажную роль будет play the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. If an aggressive course is taken to contain the fall in the US dollar, this could negatively affect the stock market, as loans will rise in price. The likelihood of a serious correction in the American stock market is also possible, due to which bitcoin can win more. If the FRS does not resort to aggressive monetary actions, the US dollar index may again go down to the levels of the beginning of June this year.
Risky game MicroStrategy
However, we can see that at this timeBitcoin continued its decline despite the acquisition of MicroStrategy. This means that the trading volume to buy BTC was quickly absorbed by the market and bearish sentiment still prevails in the cryptocurrency market. In our opinion, the company is playing a very risky game, continuing to invest in bitcoin after having made its purchase at levels close to historical highs.
The fall may continue or it may happenprotracted consolidation in the region of $ 30 thousand, and MicroStrategy risks not fulfilling its debt obligations to investors on bonds that were issued to buy digital assets.
We believe that the next two weeks will becomedetermining in the medium-term development of the dynamics of the bitcoin rate. If there is a fall below $ 31,000 - the nearest support level, which was determined by CEX.IO trading data - the likelihood of continuation of the correction to $ 20,000 will increase. If support takes its toll, a return to $ 50,000 and above will become the dominant scenario.