Default risks are growing: large investors froze in anticipation of a sell-off in the crypto market

Article reading time:
6 min.

Opinion

While Democrats and Republicans in the US are trying to agree on a debt ceiling, investors are waiting for the rise in rates before the sale. Cryptocurrency did not show any serious dynamics last week.

Bitcoin

During the week from May 19 to May 26, the price of bitcoin fell by1.9%. After a serious bull run in the first quarter of the year, the second quarter turned out to be more calm. On Friday evening, May 26, the price of BTC is a little over $26,000. The first cryptocurrency by capitalization has not been so cheap since March.

Source: tradingview.com

The situation is far from growing.This is largely due to the strengthening of the US dollar since the beginning of May 2023. If BTC lost almost 10% during this period, then U.S. The Dollar Index, which measures the relative value of the US currency against a basket of foreign money, gained nearly 2.5%.

Source: tradingview.com

In addition, the lack of movement in bitcoincoincided with a general decline in online activity. Since the end of April and throughout May, the number of addresses involved has been declining. If on April 25 the figure reached more than 18 million, then on May 25 only 14.88 million.

Source: app.santiment.net

Well, bitcoin does not fall because there are no people who want tosell. According to analytics portal LunarCrush, overall bearish sentiment is at its lowest since September 2022. And in general, the indicator has been declining since the end of March.

Source: lunarcrush.com

In terms of technical analysis, bitcoinis in lateral motion. The exit from the corridor can be the beginning of a trend movement: growth or fall. The nearest support level is $25,800, the nearest resistance level is $27,666.

Source: tradingview.com

Glassnode analysts
noted the concentration of large volumes of coins,which are "temporarily dormant" on the wallets of individual large investors. Experts believe that the growth in the number of holders may be due to the expectation of a rise in the price of the cryptocurrency and its further sale.

weekly fear and greed index
remained virtually unchanged, rising from 48 to 49. He is still in the neutral zone.

Ethereum

Over the past seven days, the dynamics of the air againwas zero. The coin fell in price by 0.25%. Ethereum volatility continues to be low. In a week, only twice a day, the price changed by more than 2%, which is a rather ridiculous result for cryptocurrencies.

Source: tradingview.com

In order to grow, there is simply no onecauses. In America, which is a kind of “cryptocurrency Mecca” and a place of concentration for many players, they still have not decided on an increase in the debt ceiling. There is less and less time until June 1, when a default is supposed to be announced. Naturally, this causes concern among US citizens.

The results of technical analysis characterizesituation as sideways. The price of ETH is clamped in the range of $1,750-$1,850. A rise above the upper limit or a fall below the lower one will be the starting point of some kind of movement. For now, the best thing traders can do is stay away.

Source: tradingview.com

Not inspiring and the situation around the hardwareLedger wallets. First, the developers launched an update that gave access to part of the users' seed phrase. Then it was announced the launch of a new firmware that gave third parties access to the private keys of crypto wallets. And then the launch of the Ledger Recovery access recovery service was delayed. The result is a convoluted story. The only clear thing is that the reputation of Ledger as a reliable crypto wallet, to put it mildly, has been shaken.

Avalanche

Cryptocurrency Avalanche for the last seven daysfell in price more than bitcoin and ether. The fall was slightly more than 3.9%. At the same time, it almost completely fell on one day - Wednesday, May 24, when the price fell immediately by 3.83%.

Source: tradingview.com

In general, Avalanche has seen a downtrend since 19April. However, in terms of fundamentals, the platform is doing well. This week it became known about the launch by Circle of the EUROC stablecoin, pegged to the euro on the Avalanche blockchain. Before that, he worked only on Ethereum.

Avalanche's parent company, Ava Labs, announced
about launching AvaCloud. How the service is positioned in the company itself is a kind of
a launch pad for Web3 designed to help companies create fully managed blockchains without code.

But in terms of technical analysis,Avalanche's picture is not the most rosy. The coin continues to decline in price. It's hard to say when to stop falling. Perhaps this will happen after reaching the support level of $13.1. Resistance level = $15.34. Bearish sentiment is also confirmed by the fact that the price is below the 50-day (marked in yellow) and 200-day (marked in purple) moving averages.

Source: tradingview.com

In other words, the current situation in the crypto marketcharacterized by calm. It is explained by the expectation of investors to resolve the issue of default in the US, as well as the lack of desire among major players to buy or sell at current prices.

This material and the information in it does not constitute individual or other investment advice. The opinion of the editors may not coincide with the opinions of the author, analytical portals and experts.